WTIO30 FMEE 171854



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/5/20152016

1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (URIAH)



2.A POSITION 2016/02/17 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 19.3 S / 79.5 E

(NINETEEN    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE

DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH-WEST 9 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/D 1.5/12 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 925 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :26 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 280 SE: 830 SW: 650 NW: 280

34 KT NE: 190 SE: 310 SW: 220 NW: 150

48 KT NE: 90 SE: 60 SW: 100 NW: 110

64 KT NE: 70 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 80



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/02/18 06 UTC: 20.7 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2016/02/18 18 UTC: 22.0 S / 78.4 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2016/02/19 06 UTC: 23.1 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

48H: 2016/02/19 18 UTC: 23.3 S / 78.3 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

60H: 2016/02/20 06 UTC: 23.3 S / 78.2 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

72H: 2016/02/20 18 UTC: 23.7 S / 78.2 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2016/02/21 18 UTC: 25.1 S / 79.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

120H: 2016/02/22 18 UTC: 30.2 S / 80.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=6.5- CI=6.5-



OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, URIAH HAS CONTINUED TO INTENSIFY  WITH

SYMMETRIC EYE AND CDO. THE EYE HAS SLIGHTLY SHRUNKEN.

ACCORDING TO CIMSS DATA, VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS STRONGER (12KT) BUT

WITH NO EFFECT ON THE SYSTEM HEART FOR NOW.

THE SYSTEM HAS A GOOD OUTFLOW CHANNEL POLEWARD.



TONIGHT AND THURSDAY, WITH THE REBUILDING OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE

EAST, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BEND SOUTHWARD. FRIDAY AND

SATURDAY, URIAH IS LIKELY TO SLOW DOWN BECAUSE OF A VERY WEAK

BAROMETRIC PATTERN IN ITS SOUTH. DURING THE NIGHT FROM SATURDAY TO

SUNDAY, THE MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE OTHER NWP MODELS

FORECAST A COMEBACK TO A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK STEERED BY A BUILDING

RIDGE IN ITS NORTHEAST AND A LOW LEVEL TROUGH.



ON THIS TRACK, URIAH MAY HAVE REACH ITS PEAK OF INTENSITY.

URIAH IS NOW MOVING TOWARDS LESS ENERGETIC WATERS. IT COULD BEGIN TO

WEAKEN FROM TOMORROW THURSDAY.

ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE SLOW MOVING IS LIKELY TO COOL THE

UNDERLYING SST.

FROM FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME

PROGRESSIVELY LESS CONDUCIVE WITH THE INCREASING OF THE NORTHWESTERLY

VWS, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER TROUGH.

THEN FROM FRIDAY, THE WEAKENING TREND SHOULD ACCELERATE.

ON SUNDAY, OVER MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SOUTH OF 24S, AND THE

STRENGTHENING OF THE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY

TO LOSE PROGRESSIVELY  ITS PURELY TROPICAL CARACTERISTICS.=