WTIO30 FMEE 180022 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/5/20152016 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 5 (URIAH) 2.A POSITION 2016/02/18 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 20.1 S / 79.2 E (TWENTY DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY NINE DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 8 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.0/6.5/S 0.0/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 925 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :17 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 280 SE: 830 SW: 650 NW: 280 34 KT NE: 190 SE: 310 SW: 220 NW: 150 48 KT NE: 90 SE: 60 SW: 100 NW: 110 64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 50 NW: 60 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2016/02/18 12 UTC: 21.5 S / 78.7 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H: 2016/02/19 00 UTC: 22.7 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H: 2016/02/19 12 UTC: 23.1 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 48H: 2016/02/20 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 78.2 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 60H: 2016/02/20 12 UTC: 23.5 S / 78.4 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 72H: 2016/02/21 00 UTC: 24.0 S / 78.5 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK : 96H: 2016/02/22 00 UTC: 26.2 S / 79.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 120H: 2016/02/23 00 UTC: 31.4 S / 79.7 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=6.0- CI=6.5- OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CDO HAS WARMED, AND THE EYE SHAPE HAS DETERIORATED. SOME CIRRUS APPEARED IN THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. ACCORDING TO CIMSS DATA, WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS STRONGER (300AO/14KT AT 18Z) . THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL REMAINS GOOD. AS IT WAS FORECASTED, URIAH BEGINS TO WEAKEN. TODAY, WITH THE REBUILDING OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IN THE EAST, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO BEND SOUTHWARD AND TO SLOW DOWN. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, URIAH IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ALMOST STATIONNARY BECAUSE OF A VERY WEAK WIND FIELD IN ITS SOUTH. DURING THE NIGHT FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY, THE MAJORITY OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS AND THE OTHER NWP MODELS FORECAST A COMEBACK TO A SOUTH TO SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK STEERED BY A BUILDING RIDGE IN ITS NORTHEAST AND A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IN ITS SOUTH-WEST. ON THIS TRACK, URIAH IS NOW MOVING TOWARDS LESS ENERGETIC WATERS. ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE SLOW MOVEMENT IS LIKELY TO COOL THE UNDERLYING SST. FROM FRIDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME PROGRESSIVELY LESS CONDUCIVE WITH THE INCREASING OF THE WEST-NORTHWESTERLY VWS, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF AN UPPER TROUGH. THEN FROM FRIDAY, THE WEAKENING TREND SHOULD ACCELERATE. FROM SUNDAY, OVER MARGINAL OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SOUTH OF 24S, AND WITH THE STRENGTHENING OF THE WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS, THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO LOSE PROGRESSIVELY ITS PURELY TROPICAL CARACTERISTICS.=