WTIO30 FMEE 181233



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/5/20152016

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  5  (URIAH)



2.A POSITION 2016/02/18 AT 1200 UTC:

WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 22.1 S / 78.7 E

(TWENTY TWO    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY EIGHT

DECIMAL SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : SOUTH 10 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.5/W 2.0/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 955 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 70 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 330 SE: 700 SW: 440 NW: 190

34 KT NE: 240 SE: 330 SW: 240 NW: 120

48 KT NE: 140 SE: 170 SW: 140 NW: 0

64 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 60 NW: 0



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 800 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/02/19 00 UTC: 23.3 S / 78.4 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2016/02/19 12 UTC: 24.0 S / 78.1 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2016/02/20 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 77.8 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

48H: 2016/02/20 12 UTC: 23.9 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

60H: 2016/02/21 00 UTC: 24.2 S / 77.7 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

72H: 2016/02/21 12 UTC: 25.0 S / 78.0 E, MAX WIND=045 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2016/02/22 12 UTC: 28.5 S / 79.1 E, MAX WIND=040 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION

120H: 2016/02/23 12 UTC: 32.2 S / 79.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT,

POST-TROPICAL DEPRESSION



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=4.0 CI=4.5



OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS, URIAH'S WEAKENING HAS BEEN DRAMATIC. THE EYE

PATTERN HAS GRADUALLY EVOLVED INTO A CDO. THE NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL

WINDSHEAR INFLUENCE IS STILL VISIBLE ON THE SAT IMAGERY. 1105Z SSMIS

MICROWAVE DATA DEPICT THE RESIDUAL PATTERNS OF LAST NIGHT'S EYE

REPLACEMENT CYCLE WHICH ALSO CONTRIBUTED TO URIAH'S WEAKENING. FT IS

BASED ON MET, CORRECTED BY A PT AT 4.0.



TODAY, URIAH BEGAN TO TRACK SOUTHWARD.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, URIAH IS LIKELY TO REMAIN ALMOST STATIONARY

BECAUSE OF A VERY WEAK ANTICLOCKWISE WIND FIELD IN ITS SOUTH. DURING

THE NIGHT FROM SATURDAY TO SUNDAY, THE MAJORITY OF THE 00Z ENSEMBLE

MEMBERS AND THE OTHER NWP MODELS FORECAST A COMEBACK TO A SOUTH TO

SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK STEERED BY A BUILDING RIDGE IN ITS

NORTHEAST AND A LOW LEVEL TROUGH IN ITS SOUTH-WEST.



ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THE SLOW MOVEMENT IS LIKELY TO COOL THE

UNDERLYING SST, ALREADY ASSOCIATED WITH MUCH LOWER OHC.

TOMORROW, THE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME

PROGRESSIVELY LESS CONDUCIVE WITH THE INCREASING OF THE

WEST-NORTH-WESTERLY VWS, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF

AN UPPER TROUGH.

THEN FROM FRIDAY, THE WEAKENING TREND SHOULD ACCELERATE.

FROM SATURDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BEGIN AN EXTRATROPICALISATION PHASE.=