WTXS31 PGTW 171500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH) WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 171200Z --- NEAR 18.6S 80.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 235 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 225 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 230 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 18.6S 80.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 20.0S 79.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 21.4S 78.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 22.5S 78.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 165 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 23.2S 78.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 175 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 24.3S 78.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 25.4S 78.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 29.1S 80.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 171500Z POSITION NEAR 18.9S 79.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (URIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 820 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A VERY SYMMETRIC CORE WITH A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING A WELL DEFINED 19NM EYE THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 171236Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS SIGNIFICANT RECENT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL THAT HAS HELPED STRENGTHEN THE SYSTEM AND AIDED IN THE DEEP CONVECTION OBSERVED IN THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 115 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM KNES AND PGTW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) ARE AROUND 28 CELSIUS AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS LOW (10 TO 15 KNOTS). THIS COUPLED WITH THE ENHANCED OUTFLOW WILL SUPPORT FURTHER INTENSIFICATION TO 125 KNOTS OVER THE NEXT TWELVE HOURS BEFORE VWS INCREASES AND SST DECREASES AS IT TRACKS POLEWARD. TC URIAH IS CURRENTLY TRAVELING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND WILL SLOW BY TAU 24 AS IT REACHES THE RIDGE AXIS. BY TAU 72, TC URIAH WILL ACCELERATE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST AS A TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT GIVING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z AND 181500Z.//