WTXS31 PGTW 181500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH) WARNING NR 011// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 181200Z --- NEAR 22.0S 78.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.0S 78.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 23.2S 78.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 23.9S 78.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 24.3S 78.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 24.7S 78.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 25.6S 77.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 28.0S 78.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 181500Z POSITION NEAR 22.3S 78.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 13S (URIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 963 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES RAPIDLY DECAYING DEEP CONVECTION. AN 181105Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE REVEALS A PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS MODERATE TO STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR OFFSET BY ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED SSMIS IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 5.0 (90 KNOTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND KNES. TC 13S IS TRACKING SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE, HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER TAU 24 AS A TRANSITORY RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. AFTER TAU 72, THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT EAST WHILE A DEEP TROUGH APPROACHES, WHICH WILL ALLOW TC 13S TO ACCELERATE SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF JGSM (UNREALISTIC WESTWARD TRACK), THE DYNAMIC MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, THEREFORE THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK. TC 13S SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY DUE TO PERSISTENT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH OF 25S, IT WILL ENCOUNTER COLDER SST, WHICH WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 32 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z AND 191500Z.//