WTXS51 PGTW 160300 WARNING ATCG MIL 13S SIO 160216013106 2016021600 13S URIAH 006 01 225 08 SATL 060 T000 176S 0866E 050 R050 020 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 110 SE QD 110 SW QD 055 NW QD T012 179S 0847E 055 R050 030 NE QD 030 SE QD 050 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 100 SE QD 135 SW QD 135 NW QD T024 183S 0829E 065 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 055 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 115 NE QD 115 SE QD 150 SW QD 150 NW QD T036 190S 0813E 075 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 100 NE QD 140 SE QD 145 SW QD 125 NW QD T048 201S 0800E 080 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 155 SE QD 155 SW QD 120 NW QD T072 222S 0791E 080 R064 035 NE QD 035 SE QD 035 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 060 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD R034 120 NE QD 145 SE QD 145 SW QD 120 NW QD T096 231S 0786E 075 T120 235S 0779E 065 AMP SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH) WARNING NR 006 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z --- NEAR 17.6S 86.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.6S 86.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 17.9S 84.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 18.3S 82.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 19.0S 81.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 20.1S 80.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 22.2S 79.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 23.1S 78.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 23.5S 77.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 160300Z POSITION NEAR 17.7S 86.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 13S (URIAH), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 682NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCOS ISLAND, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO DEPICT A RELATIVELY WEAK CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE. A 152101Z SSMI 85 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD LOW- LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A WELL-DEFINED, BROAD MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE, SUPPORTING THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, BUT ENTRAINMENT OF DRY AIR INTO THE SYSTEM IS LIMITING INTENSIFICATION AT THIS TIME. THE CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 50 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0 FROM ALL AGENCIES. TC URIAH IS FORECAST TO TRACK ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH TAU 48 THEN TURN MORE SOUTHWARD AS THE RIDGE REPOSITIONS TO A MORE NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTATION. AFTER TAU 72, TC URIAH WILL SLOW SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT ENTERS A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND BECOMES SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO DEEP-LAYER RIDGES, BECOMING QUASI-STATIONARY BY TAU 96. TC URIAH IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 48 TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS INCREASING VWS AND LOWER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH INCREASED UNCERTAINTY AFTER TAU 72, LEADING TO MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 21 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z AND 170300Z.// 1316020918 112S 920E 20 1316021000 111S 925E 20 1316021006 110S 930E 20 1316021012 109S 936E 20 1316021018 106S 943E 25 1316021100 103S 950E 25 1316021106 98S 958E 25 1316021112 98S 968E 25 1316021118 101S 974E 30 1316021200 104S 974E 25 1316021206 107S 972E 30 1316021212 111S 968E 30 1316021218 115S 964E 30 1316021300 120S 958E 30 1316021306 123S 950E 30 1316021312 126S 941E 35 1316021318 132S 931E 40 1316021400 138S 921E 45 1316021406 144S 913E 50 1316021412 149S 904E 55 1316021412 149S 904E 55 1316021418 154S 895E 55 1316021418 154S 895E 55 1316021500 157S 890E 55 1316021500 157S 890E 55 1316021506 161S 883E 55 1316021506 161S 883E 55 1316021512 165S 877E 55 1316021512 165S 877E 55 1316021518 170S 872E 55 1316021518 170S 872E 55 1316021600 176S 866E 50 1316021600 176S 866E 50