WTPS32 PGTW 251500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (YALO) WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 251200Z --- NEAR 19.9S 154.9W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 19.9S 154.9W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 260000Z --- 21.1S 153.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 261200Z --- 22.0S 152.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 270000Z --- 22.8S 151.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 130 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 271200Z --- 23.6S 150.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 251500Z POSITION NEAR 20.2S 154.6W. TROPICAL CYCLONE 14P (YALO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 334 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF PAPEETE, TAHITI, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A CIRCULATION CENTER THAT HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. SUBSTANTIAL CENTRAL CONVECTION IS ALSO BEGINNING TO BE OBSERVED WITH ASSOCIATED BROAD OVERCAST OBSCURING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER, GIVING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 50 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON MULTIPLE FIXING AGENCIES REPORTING DVORAK ESTIMATES BETWEEN T3.0 AND T3.5 (45 AND 55 KNOTS RESPECTIVELY). TC YALO IS CURRENTLY TRACKING SOUTHWARD AS IT RIDES ALONG THE WESTERN BOUNDARY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE POSITIONED TO THE EAST. CONDITIONS CURRENTLY SUPPORT A SHORT- TERM INTENSIFICATION TO 55 KNOTS BY TAU 12 AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE WARM (27 CELSIUS) AND MODERATE (20 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS PRESENT WITH A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. HOWEVER, BY TAU 24 TO 36 TC YALO WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS ITS SOUTHWARD TRACK MOVES IT OVER COOLER WATERS AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE WEST SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASING VWS. TC YALO IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 251200Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 260300Z AND 261500Z.//