WTIO30 FMEE 121915



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 7/8/20152016

1.A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM  8  (FANTALA)



2.A POSITION 2016/04/12 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.9 S / 68.8 E

(TWELVE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY EIGHT    DECIMAL

EIGHT   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST 4 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/4.0/D 0.5/12 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 980 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 55 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :17 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 70 SE: 170 SW: 200 NW: 170

34 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SW: 100 NW: 90

48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40





7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/04/13 06 UTC: 12.8 S / 67.1 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

24H: 2016/04/13 18 UTC: 12.7 S / 65.5 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2016/04/14 06 UTC: 12.6 S / 63.8 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

48H: 2016/04/14 18 UTC: 12.6 S / 62.1 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

60H: 2016/04/15 06 UTC: 12.5 S / 60.5 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

72H: 2016/04/15 18 UTC: 12.4 S / 58.9 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2016/04/16 18 UTC: 12.0 S / 56.0 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

120H: 2016/04/17 18 UTC: 11.5 S / 54.3 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=4.0



MW DATA OF THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING WERE HELPFUL TO SHOW THAT

FANTALA HAD NORTH-WESTWARDS MOTION DURING THAT TIME. WINDSAT OF 1353Z

DEPICT A SHRINKING INNER-CORE SYSTEM (COMPARE TO THIS MORNING) WITH A

SMALL AND WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. THE LOW LEVEL EYE SEEN

ON THE WINDSAT IMAGERY IS ALSO BETTER VERTICALLY LINE UP WITH THE

MID-LEVEL EYE SEEN ON A CONCOMITANT SSMIS THAN IT WAS EARLIER THIS

AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON CONGRUENT DVORAK

ESTIMATES FROM VARIOUS AGENCIES. BASED ON THE CONTRACTION OF THE RMW

AS SEEM ON MW IMAGERY, THE MSLP ESTIMATE HAS BEEN ADJUSTED DOWNWARDS.



WITHIN THE NEXT DAYS, THE MID LEVEL PATTERN TO THE SOUTH OF FANTALA

SHOULD BECOME PROGRESSIVELY MORE MERIDIAN WITH BUILDING HIGHS THAT

SHOULD INCREASE IN THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM AND THE ARRIVAL OF AN

UPPER/MID TROUGH EAST OF 70E. IN RESPONSE, FANTALA SHOULD MAINTAIN A

WEST-NORTH-WESTWARDS. AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, THE SYSTEM

SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TRACK NORTHWESTWARD WITH THE WESTWARD SHIFTING

OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE. UP TO SUNDAY, AVAILABLE MODELS ARE OVERALL IN

AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO BUT SOME DIFFERENCE PERSIST IN TERM OF

SPEED.



FANTALA IS FORECAST TO TRACK BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND

BENEFIT FROM A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER

INTENSIFICATION. THE LOW LEVEL MW SIGNATURE MAY BE THE PRECURSOR OF A

RAPID INTENSIFICATION EVENT ... AND THAT IS REFLECTED IN THE CURRENT

FORECAST (+35 KT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS). ALL RELIABLE GUIDANCE

SUGGEST THAT A DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD NEAR THE AGALEGA

SECTOR AT THE END OF THE WEEK.=