WTIO30 FMEE 131234



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 10/8/20152016

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  8  (FANTALA)



2.A POSITION 2016/04/13 AT 1200 UTC:

WITHIN 5 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.9 S / 66.0 E

(TWELVE    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY SIX    DECIMAL ZERO

DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST 8 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/D 1.0/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 963 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :9 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 80 SE: 160 SW: 160 NW: 100

34 KT NE: 70 SE: 100 SW: 100 NW: 80

48 KT NE: 40 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50

64 KT NE: 20 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 20



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 400 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/04/14 00 UTC: 12.8 S / 64.3 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2016/04/14 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 62.7 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2016/04/15 00 UTC: 12.7 S / 60.9 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

48H: 2016/04/15 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 59.1 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

60H: 2016/04/16 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 57.5 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

72H: 2016/04/16 12 UTC: 12.2 S / 56.0 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2016/04/17 12 UTC: 11.1 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

120H: 2016/04/18 12 UTC: 11.2 S / 52.6 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=5.0-;CI=5.0+



FROM 06Z TO 09Z, A PINHOLE EYE WAS DISPLAYED ON THE IR AND ESPECIALLY

VIS IMAGES. THEN, THIS EYE DISAPPEARED AGAIN AND A REGULAR CDO

PATTERN WAS DISPLAYED, WHICH IS A SLIGHTLY WORST CLOUD PATTERN. THE

LIGHT EASTERLY SHEAR IS STILL THERE BUT LARGELY COMPENSATED BY THE

EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE ALOFT.



WITHIN THE NEXT DAYS, A HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL AREA IS GRADUALLY

STRENGTHENING SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM. FANTALA SHOULD MAINTAIN A

GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTH-WEST TRACK UNTIL FRIDAY EVENING. THIS

WEEK-END, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLIGHTLY TURN NORTH-WESTWARD AS THE STR

REMAINS LOCATED TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF THE SYSTEM BUT TENDS TO

GRADUALLY WEAKEN DURING THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF

MODELS ARE OVERALL IN AGREEMENT BUT SOME DIFFERENCES PERSIST IN TERM

OF FORWARD MOTION. SUNDAY EVENING, THE SYSTEM SHOULD SLOW DOWN BEFORE

BEGINNING A RATHER SHARP TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST ON MONDAY.

DETERMINISTIC GFS AND ECMWF MODEL AGREE ON THIS SCENARIO, HOWEVER,

THE LAST ECMWF ENSEMBLE PREDICTION RUN SUGGEST THAT A TRACK KEEPING

ON A WEST-NORTH-WESTWARD MOTION REMAINS ALSO POSSIBLE, WHICH EXPLAIN

A LARGE MODEL DISPERSION IN THE LONG TERM.



FANTALA IS FORECAST TO TRACK BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND

BENEFIT FROM A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER

INTENSIFICATION. THE EQUATORIAL DIVERGENCE SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT

FROM THURSDAY TO SATURDAY (BUT STILL EXCELLENT POLEWARDS). GIVEN THE

SAMLL SIZE OF FANTALA'S CORE AND CURRENT CONDUCIVE ATMOSPHERIC AND

OCEANIC CONDITIONS, SIGNIFICANT INTENSITY VARIATIONS REMAIN LIKELY TO

OCCUR. MONDAY, AS FANTALA SLOWS DOWN, IT ARRIVES OVER SHALLOWER WARM

WATERS LAYER. THUS, FANTALA COULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE QUICKLY

CONSUMING THE WEAK OHC AVAILABLE IN THIS AREA.



 ALL RELIABLE GUIDANCE SUGGEST THAT A DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE

SHOULD NEARING THE AGALEGA SECTOR AT THE END OF THE WEEK.=