WTIO30 FMEE 140651



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/8/20152016

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  8  (FANTALA)



2.A POSITION 2016/04/14 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5 S / 63.5 E

(TWELVE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY THREE    DECIMAL

FIVE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST 8 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SW: 320 NW: 150

34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 150 NW: 70

48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 60

64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 50 NW: 40



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 400 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/04/14 18 UTC: 12.4 S / 61.5 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2016/04/15 06 UTC: 12.4 S / 59.4 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2016/04/15 18 UTC: 12.2 S / 57.8 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

48H: 2016/04/16 06 UTC: 11.9 S / 56.4 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

60H: 2016/04/16 18 UTC: 11.5 S / 55.1 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

72H: 2016/04/17 06 UTC: 11.0 S / 53.7 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2016/04/18 06 UTC: 10.2 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

120H: 2016/04/19 06 UTC: 11.3 S / 53.3 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=5.5-



DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, FANTALA HAS ADOPTED A SOLID EYE PATTERN,

WITH A COOLING RING OF DEEP CONVECTION (IR IMAGERY). THE LAST MW

PICTURES  DEPICT A AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE OVER THE PAST 12

HOURS.

FANTALA HAS BEGUN A NEW INSTENSIFICATION PHASE.



THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACKING WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE

HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL CELL LOCATED BETWEEN MADAGASCAR AND MASCAREIGNES

ISLAND. WITHIN THE NEXT DAYS, THIS HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL AREA SHOULD

GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING AND SHOULD ORIENTATE PROGRESSIVELY THE TRACK

NORTHWESTWARD. FANTALA IS FORECASTED TO TRANSIT APPROXIMATIVELY 100

NM SOUTH OF AGALEGA SATURDAY TO THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL

CYCLONE.

FROM SUNDAY, THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND

FANTALA SHOULD SLOW DOWN BEFORE BEGINNING A RATHER SHARP TURN TOWARDS

THE SOUTH-EAST ON MONDAY UNDER THE NORTWESTERN STEERING FLOW OF AN

UPPER/MID NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. GFS AND ECMWF ARE OVERALL IN

AGREEMENT BUT AT THIS TERM OF FORECAST, THE LOCATION OF THE TURN, IN

THE VICINITY OF FARQUHAR ISLAND, IS UNCERTAIN. MOREOVER, THE LAST

ECMWF ENSEMBLE PREDICTION RUN SUGGEST THAT A WEST-NORTH-WESTWARD

MOTION TRACK WHICH COULD CROSS OVER FARQUHAR ISLAND IS NOT EXCLUDED.



FANTALA IS FORECASTED TO TRACK BENEATH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND

BENEFIT FROM A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER

INTENSIFICATION. THE EQUATORIAL DIVERGENCE SHOULD WEAKEN SOMEWHAT

TODAY, BUT INCREASE FRIDAY, AND REMAIN FAVOURABLE POLEWARDS. WEST OF

55E, OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SHOULD DECREASE AND COULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY

OF THE SYSTEM (ESPECIALLY IF FANTALA SLOWS DOWN  AND TURNS BACK AS

FORECASTING BY GFS AND ECMWF).=