WTIO30 FMEE 141301



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 14/8/20152016

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  8  (FANTALA)



2.A POSITION 2016/04/14 AT 1200 UTC:

WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.4 S / 62.5 E

(TWELVE    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO    DECIMAL FIVE

DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST 8 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.5/W 0.5/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 962 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 85 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SW: 320 NW: 150

34 KT NE: 90 SE: 90 SW: 150 NW: 90

48 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 60

64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 50 NW: 40



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 300 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/04/15 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 60.6 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2016/04/15 12 UTC: 12.4 S / 58.8 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2016/04/16 00 UTC: 12.3 S / 57.1 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

48H: 2016/04/16 12 UTC: 12.1 S / 55.7 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

60H: 2016/04/17 00 UTC: 11.4 S / 54.5 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

72H: 2016/04/17 12 UTC: 10.8 S / 53.3 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2016/04/18 12 UTC: 10.4 S / 53.0 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

120H: 2016/04/19 12 UTC: 11.2 S / 54.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=5.0-, CI=5.5-



DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE CLOUD STRUCTURE HAS CHANGED WITH THE EYE

DISAPPEARING ON THE IR IMAGERY. THE LAST MW PICTURES DISPLAY AN

ERODED EYE WALL IN THE NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.

ACCORDING TO THE FORECAST, THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE HAS WEAKENED,

BUT FANTALA, A SMALL SYSTEM, HAS STRUGGLED AGAINST NORTH-EASTERLY

UPPER LEVEL WINDS (029AO/9KT ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS).



THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE

HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL CELL LOCATED BETWEEN MADAGASCAR AND MASCAREIGNES

ISLANDS. UP TO 48TAU, THIS HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL AREA SHOULD GRADUALLY

STRENGTHENING AND SHOULD ORIENTATE PROGRESSIVELY THE TRACK

NORTHWESTWARD. FANTALA IS FORECASTED TO TRANSIT APPROXIMATIVELY 100

NM SOUTH OF AGALEGA SATURDAY TO THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL

CYCLONE.

FROM SUNDAY, THE MID-TROPOSPHERE RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND

FANTALA SHOULD SLOW DOWN BEFORE BEGINNING A RATHER SHARP TURN ON

MONDAY UNDER THE NORTWESTERN STEERING FLOW OF AN UPPER/MID NEAR

EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THE LAST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CLOCKWISE

TURN. GFS AND ECMWF ARE OVERALL IN AGREEMENT BUT AT THIS TERM OF

FORECAST, THE LOCATION OF THE TURN, IN THE VICINITY OF FARQUHAR

ISLAND, IS UNCERTAIN. MOREOVER, THE LAST ECMWF ENSEMBLE PREDICTION

RUN SUGGESTS THAT A WEST-NORTH-WESTWARD MOTION TRACK WHICH COULD

CROSS OVER FARQUHAR ISLAND IS NOT EXCLUDED.



THE UPPER LEVEL WINDSHEAR IS FORECASTED TO WEAKEN NEXT NIGHT, AND THE

UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL COULD REBUILT EQUATORWARDS. THE OUTFLOW

CHANNEL PERSISTS POLEWARDS. THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY

TO REMAIN FAVOURABLE FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. WEST OF 55E, OCEAN HEAT

CONTENT SHOULD DECREASE AND COULD LIMIT THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM,

ESPECIALLY IF FANTALA SLOWS DOWN  AND TURNS BACK AS IT IS THE MOST

LIKELY.=