WTIO30 FMEE 150039



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 16/8/20152016

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  8  (FANTALA)



2.A POSITION 2016/04/15 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.3 S / 60.4 E

(TWELVE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY    DECIMAL FOUR

DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST 9 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.0/5.0/S 0.0/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 965 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 130 SE: 200 SW: 190 NW: 130

34 KT NE: 100 SE: 150 SW: 130 NW: 90

48 KT NE: 60 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60

64 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1004 HPA / 300 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/04/15 12 UTC: 12.1 S / 58.9 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2016/04/16 00 UTC: 12.1 S / 57.4 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2016/04/16 12 UTC: 11.8 S / 55.9 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

48H: 2016/04/17 00 UTC: 11.2 S / 54.9 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

60H: 2016/04/17 12 UTC: 10.7 S / 53.9 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

72H: 2016/04/18 00 UTC: 10.4 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2016/04/19 00 UTC: 10.5 S / 53.7 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

120H: 2016/04/20 00 UTC: 12.4 S / 56.8 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=5.0-, CI=5.0



DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS, A WARM SPOT APPEARED INTERMITTENTLY WITHIN

THE COLD CLOUD TOPS OF THE CDO. THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK UPPER LEVEL

CONSTRAINT (10KT ACCORDING TO CIMSS DATA) IS STILL DISPLAYED ON THE

LAST MW IMAGES, WITH A WEAKNESS OF THE CONVECTION IN THE

NORTH-EASTERN QUADRANT.



THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A HIGH

GEOPOTENTIAL CELL LOCATED BETWEEN MADAGASCAR AND THE MASCAREIGNES

ISLANDS. FRIDAY, THE GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THIS HIGH SHOULD

ORIENTATE THE TRACK A BIT MORE NORTHWESTWARD. ON SATURDAY, FANTALA IS

FORECASTED TO TRANSIT A LITTLE LESS THAN 100 NM SOUTH OF AGALEGA AT

THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE.

FROM SUNDAY, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE SLOWED BY A RIDGE IN ITS WEST AND

AXED OVER THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL, AS THE HIGH CENTERED OVER THE

MASCAREIGNES WEAKENS. MONDAY, THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE

NORTH-EAST WILL TAKE OVER THE STEERING FLOW AND DRIVE A SHARP

SOUTH-EASTWARD U-TURN OF THE SYSTEM. THE MOST RELIABLE NWP MODELS ARE

IN AGREEMENT AND STILL FORECAST A NARROW CLOCKWISE LOOP. HOWEVER, THE

EXACT LOCATION OF THE U-TURN REMAINS UNCERTAIN AS THE 12Z ECMWF

ENSEMBLE PREDICTION RUN FORECAST A MODERATE RISK THAT FANTALA CROSS

THE FARQHAR BEFORE DOING ITS U-TURN WEST OF THESE ISLANDS.



THE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW CHANNEL COULD REAPPEAR EQUATORWARDS ON

FRIDAY. THE OUTFLOW CHANNEL PERSISTS POLEWARDS. FANTALA WILL THEN

DEVELOP WITHIN CONDUCIVE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS UNTIL TUESDAY

EVENING.WEST OF 55E, THE LESSER OCEAN HEAT CONTENT SHOULD BECOME THE

LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM. ITS INFLUENCE WILL

BE ALL THE MORE IMPORTANT IF FANTALA SLOWS DOWN AND TURNS BACK AS IN

THE MOST LIKELY FORECAST SCENARIO. WEDNESDAY, A UPPER AND MID LEVELS

TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH-WEST AND COULD INDUCE A MODERATE

NORTH-WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT.=