WTIO30 FMEE 151834



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 19/8/20152016

1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE  8  (FANTALA)



2.A POSITION 2016/04/15 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.5 S / 58.0 E

(TWELVE    DECIMAL FIVE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY EIGHT    DECIMAL

ZERO   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST 8 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/D 1.0/12 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 937 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 130 SE: 220 SW: 200 NW: 130

34 KT NE: 110 SE: 170 SW: 150 NW: 90

48 KT NE: 70 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 70

64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 400 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/04/16 06 UTC: 12.2 S / 56.4 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2016/04/16 18 UTC: 11.9 S / 54.9 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2016/04/17 06 UTC: 11.3 S / 53.4 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

48H: 2016/04/17 18 UTC: 10.4 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

60H: 2016/04/18 06 UTC: 9.7 S / 51.3 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

72H: 2016/04/18 18 UTC: 9.7 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2016/04/19 18 UTC: 11.0 S / 53.8 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

120H: 2016/04/20 18 UTC: 13.8 S / 56.9 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=6.5-



DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS, FANTALA'S INTENSITY REMAINED STEADY. THE

VERY LAST AVALAIBLE IR PICTURES DEPICT A WARMING OF THE CONVECTIVE

RING AND A COOLING OF THE EYE.



THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON TRACKING WESTWARD ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF A HIGH

GEOPOTENTIAL CELL LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, WITH A RIDGE AXIS OVER

MADAGASCAR. THIS RIDGE AXIS SHOULD SHIFT SLIGHTLY EASTWARDS UP TO

SUNDAY. IT SHOULD ORIENTATE THE TRACK A BIT MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.

ON THIS TRACK, FANTALA IS FORECASTED TO TRANSIT A LITTLE MORE THAN

100 NM SOUTH OF AGALEGA FROM TOMORROW MORNING TO TOMORROW AFTERNOON,

AT THE STAGE OF INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE. BUT THE ISLAND SHOULDN'T BE

DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY THE CORE OF THE SYSTEM.



FROM SUNDAY, THE SOUTHERN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD WEAKEN. ON MONDAY, THE

STEERING FLOW IS LIKELY TO FAIL. ON TUESDAY, THE NEAR EQUATORIAL

RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST WILL TAKE OVER THE STEERING FLOW AND DRIVE A

SHARP SOUTH-EASTWARD U-TURN OF THE SYSTEM. THE MOST RELIABLE NWP

MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON THIS GENERAL TREND. HOWEVER, THE EXACT

LOCATION OF THE TURN REMAINS UNCERTAIN : LAST AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FROM

THE EURO AND THE AMERICAN MODEL TEND TO BRING THE CENTER CLOSER TO

THE FARQHAR ARCHIPELAGO.



UP TO TUESDAY, FANTALA IS LIKELY TO UNDERGO RATHER CONDUCIVE UPPER

LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. THE NORTHERLY CONSTRAINT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL

WHILE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE SUNDAY AFTER A

TEMPORARY DECAY SATURDAY. BUT, WEST OF 55E, THE LESSER OCEAN HEAT

CONTENT SHOULD BECOME THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE INTENSITY OF THE

SYSTEM. ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE ALL THE MORE IMPORTANT IF FANTALA SLOWS

DOWN AND RETURNS ON ITS PREVIOUS TRACK WHERE WATERS ARE COLDER.

WEDNESDAY, AN UPPER AND MID LEVELS TROUGH ARRIVES FROM THE SOUTH-WEST

AND MAY INDUCE A MODERATE NORTH-WESTERLY UPPER LEVEL CONSTRAINT.=