WTIO30 FMEE 161309 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 22/8/20152016 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FANTALA) 2.A POSITION 2016/04/16 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.0 S / 55.3 E (TWELVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY FIVE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 10 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/D 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 933 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 110 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :15 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 120 SE: 430 SW: 390 NW: 120 34 KT NE: 90 SE: 190 SW: 170 NW: 90 48 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 60 64 KT NE: 50 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 50 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2016/04/17 00 UTC: 11.4 S / 53.8 E, MAX WIND=125 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H: 2016/04/17 12 UTC: 10.5 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND=125 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H: 2016/04/18 00 UTC: 9.7 S / 50.9 E, MAX WIND=120 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 48H: 2016/04/18 12 UTC: 9.5 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 60H: 2016/04/19 00 UTC: 9.7 S / 50.1 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 72H: 2016/04/19 12 UTC: 10.2 S / 50.9 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK : 96H: 2016/04/20 12 UTC: 12.3 S / 53.6 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 120H: 2016/04/21 12 UTC: 14.6 S / 56.1 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=6.5,CI=6.5 EXTREMELY DANGEROUS TROPICAL CYCLONE FANTALA NEARING THE FARQUAHR ARCHIPELAGO. AT 12 UTC, THE EYE IS A LITTLE LESS THAN 500 KM TO THE EAST-SOUTH-EAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST ISLANDS (FARQUAHR ATOLL - SEYCHELLES). THE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY WITH AN IMPROVING EYE DEFINITION SURROUNDING BY VERY COLD CLOUD TOPS. 3HR MEAN DT IS AT 6.5. ALL REPORTING AGENCIES ARE AT 6.5. THE SYSTEM, AS EXPECTED, HAS BEND NORTHWESTWARDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF A HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL CELL LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, WITH A RIDGE AXIS OVER MADAGASCAR. THIS RIDGE AXIS SHOULD MAINTAIN TO THE SOUTH-WEST OF FANTALA WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS AND THEREFORE THE TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY BEND NORTHWESTWARDS. ON THIS TRACK, FANTALA IS NOW A SERIOUS THREAT FOR THE SEYCHELLES FARQUAHR ISLANDS (THE SOUTHERN GROUP MAINLY) WITH A POTENTIAL DIRECT HIT WITHIN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS (RARE EVENT - LAST ONE IS BONDO IN DEC 2006 AND NO OCCURENCE KNOWN BEFORE SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE SATELLITE ERA) FROM SUNDAY, THE SOUTHERN HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD WEAKEN. MONDAY, THE STEERING FLOW IS LIKELY TO FAIL. TUESDAY, A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST WILL REBUILT AND FANTALA COULD ADOPT A SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON A CONSENSUS OF THE LAST AURO AND GFS OUTPUT.THE LAST 06Z OUTPUT FROM THE EURO MODEL (FORECAST UP TO 90H), NOT INCLUDED IN THIS FORECAST, SHOW A SOUTHEASTWARDS TURN LATER AND MORE TO THE WEST ... THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS DIFFICULT DUE TO THE SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY FLUCTUATES RAPIDLY WITH SMALL FLUCTUATIONS OF THE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. BUT WITHOUT ANY EARLY INDICATIONS OF THE BEGINNING OF AN ERC AND GIVEN THE EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, FANTALA COULD REACH THE VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. FROM MONDAY, ON THE SOUTH-EASTWARD TRACK, THE SELF INDUCED SST COOLING COULD BECOME THE MAIN FACTOR OF THE WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM AS ATMOSPHERIC FACTORS ARE EXPECTED TO BE EXCELLENT FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD (SLIGHT DETERIORATION POSSIBLE AT THE END OF THE FORECAST)=