WTIO30 FMEE 171232



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 26/8/20152016

1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE  8  (FANTALA)



2.A POSITION 2016/04/17 AT 1200 UTC:

WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.4 S / 51.7 E

(TEN    DECIMAL FOUR   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY ONE    DECIMAL SEVEN

DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 10 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 6.5/6.5/D 0.5/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 932 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 115 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :19 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 130 SE: 390 SW: 330 NW: 130

34 KT NE: 90 SE: 130 SW: 150 NW: 90

48 KT NE: 60 SE: 80 SW: 90 NW: 60

64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 60



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 300 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/04/18 00 UTC: 10.1 S / 50.7 E, MAX WIND=115 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2016/04/18 12 UTC: 9.9 S / 49.9 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2016/04/19 00 UTC: 10.2 S / 50.2 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

48H: 2016/04/19 12 UTC: 10.5 S / 50.9 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

60H: 2016/04/20 00 UTC: 11.5 S / 52.5 E, MAX WIND=105 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

72H: 2016/04/20 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2016/04/21 12 UTC: 15.8 S / 56.9 E, MAX WIND=075 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

120H: 2016/04/22 12 UTC: 17.6 S / 59.7 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=6.5+



OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS, FANTALA HAS INTENSIFIED ONCE AGAIN WITH A

IMPROVEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE EQUATORWARD. EYE HAS WARMED

UP. 3 HR MEAN DT IS AT 6.6 AND RAW DT IS AT 7.0 SINCE 1100Z.

FANTALA IMPACTS NOW SEVERELY FARQUAHR ARCHIPELAGO. FANTALA IS

FORESCASTED TO CROSS OVER THE ARCHIPELAGO DURING THIS NIGHT WITHOUT

WEAKEN. IN ADDITION TO GUSTS AROUND 300 KM/H THE STORM SURGE SHOULD

REACH 2 METERS LOCALLY, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE CORE.



THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS NORTHWESTWARDS TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN AND

NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF A HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL CELL LOCATED SOUTH OF

MADAGASCAR, WITH A RIDGE AXIS OVER MADAGASCAR. TOMOROW, THIS CELL IS

FORECASTED TO SHIFT PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD AND LEAVE ROOM FOR A

MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. FANTALA SHOULD BE LOCATED WITHIN A COL WITH

OPPOSITE STEERING FLOWS. SO, FANTALA IS FORESCASTED TO BEGIN TO SLOW

DOWN THIS NIGHT WHEN IT SHOULD TRANSIT CLOSER THE FARQUAHR ISLAND.

MONDAY NIGHT, FANTALA SHOULD STOP ITS NORSTWESTWARD TRACK AND BEGIN A

SHARP TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST UNDER THE NORTHEASTERN STEERING FLOW

OF A BUILDING MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. FROM TUESDAY, FANTALA

SHOULD CONTINUE ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE TWICE

INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH-EAST AND

AHEAD A WIDE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.





THE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN ALWAYS CONDUCIVE UP TO TUESDAY.

FANTALA TAKES BENEFIT FROM A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DIVERGENCE

IS VERY GOOD AND SEVERAL FAST SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD

TRANSIT SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND EVEN TEMPORALLY INCREASE THE

POLERWARD OUTFLOW. ONLY SELF INDUCED SST COOLING AND EYEWALL

REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.



WEDNESDAY, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, THE UPPER

LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY BECOME LESS FAVOURABLE  WITH A

GRADUAL INCREASING NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. FANTALA SHOULD

BEGIN A WEAKENING PHASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY UP TO THURSDAY.=