WTIO30 FMEE 171908



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 27/8/20152016

1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE  8  (FANTALA)



2.A POSITION 2016/04/17 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.8 S / 50.8 E

(NINE    DECIMAL EIGHT   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY    DECIMAL EIGHT

DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 10 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 7.5/7.5/D 1.0/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 910 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 135 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :20 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 110 SE: 300 SW: 370 NW: 190

34 KT NE: 80 SE: 130 SW: 180 NW: 100

48 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SW: 110 NW: 70

64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 60



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 300 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/04/18 06 UTC: 9.6 S / 49.5 E, MAX WIND=125 KT, VERY INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2016/04/18 18 UTC: 9.8 S / 49.0 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2016/04/19 06 UTC: 10.2 S / 49.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

48H: 2016/04/19 18 UTC: 10.8 S / 50.3 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

60H: 2016/04/20 06 UTC: 11.7 S / 52.0 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

72H: 2016/04/20 18 UTC: 13.0 S / 53.4 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2016/04/21 18 UTC: 15.5 S / 55.4 E, MAX WIND=055 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

120H: 2016/04/22 18 UTC: 16.3 S / 56.6 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=7.5- CI=7.5



FANTALA MADE HISTORY (THE SWIO ONE'S) THIS EVENING. THE SATELLITE

PRESENTATION WAS AT 7.5 FROM 13 UTC TO 17 UTC (MET-7 IMAGERY) AND AT

7.0 SINCE 1730 UTC. 3H MEAN RAW DT IS AT 7.5 AT 16 UTC  AND 1630 UTC.

THE CLOUD PATTERN IS IMPRESSIVE WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE EMBEDDED

WITHIN AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC COLD CLOUD MASS. NEAR 15 UTC, THE

EYE OF FANTALA PASSED DIRECTLY OVER THE MAIN ISLANDS OF FARQUAHR ..

CURRENTLY THE EYEWALL IS PASSING JUST OFF THE SOUTH-WESTERN COASTS OF

CERF AND SAINT-PIERRE ISLANDS LOCATED TO THE NORTH OF THE MAIN

ISLANDS FARQUAHR.



THE SYSTEM CONTINUES ITS WEST-NORTH-WESTWARDS TRACK OVER THE NORTHERN

AND NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF A HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL CELL LOCATED SOUTH OF

MADAGASCAR, WITH A RIDGE AXIS OVER MADAGASCAR. TOMOROW, THIS CELL IS

FORECASTED TO SHIFT PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD AND LEAVE ROOM FOR A

MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. FANTALA SHOULD BE LOCATED WITHIN A COL WITH

OPPOSITE STEERING FLOWS. SO, FANTALA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO SLOW

DOWN WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MONDAY NIGHT, FANTALA SHOULD STOP ITS

NORSTWESTWARD TRACK AND BEGIN A  SHARP TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST

UNDER THE NORTHEASTERN STEERING FLOW OF A BUILDING MID-LEVEL

NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE.

GIVENT THE ONGOING TREND, THE POINT OF RECURVING HAS AGAIN SHIFT

WESTWARDS ... AND IT MAY BE BE POSSIBLE THAT IT COULD EVEN BE MORE TO

THE WEST ... CLOSE TO THE COSMOLEDO AND ASTOVE ISLANDS (SEYCHELLES)

LOCATED TO THE EAST-SOUTH-EAST OF ALDABRA.



FROM TUESDAY, FANTALA SHOULD CONTINUE ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY

UNDER THE TWICE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE

NORTH-EAST AND AHEAD A WIDE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.





THE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN ALWAYS CONDUCIVE UP TO TUESDAY.

FANTALA TAKES BENEFIT FROM A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE DIVERGENCE

IS VERY GOOD AND SEVERAL FAST SHORT WAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD

TRANSIT SOUTH OF THE SYSTEM AND EVEN TEMPORALLY INCREASE THE

POLERWARD OUTFLOW. ONLY SELF INDUCED SST COOLING AND EYEWALL

REPLACEMENT CYCLE COULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM.



WEDNESDAY, WITH THE ARRIVAL OF A DEEPER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, THE UPPER

LEVEL CONDITIONS SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY BECOME LESS FAVOURABLE  WITH A

GRADUAL INCREASING NORTHWESTWARD VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. FANTALA SHOULD

BEGIN A WEAKENING PHASE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY UP TO THURSDAY.=