WTIO30 FMEE 180115 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 28/8/20152016 1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FANTALA) 2.A POSITION 2016/04/18 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.5 S / 50.2 E (NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 6 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 7.0/7.5/W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 915 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 130 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :20 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 110 SE: 350 SW: 310 NW: 220 34 KT NE: 80 SE: 150 SW: 160 NW: 130 48 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 70 64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 60 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1006 HPA / 300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2016/04/18 12 UTC: 9.5 S / 49.0 E, MAX WIND=120 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H: 2016/04/19 00 UTC: 9.8 S / 48.8 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H: 2016/04/19 12 UTC: 10.4 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 48H: 2016/04/20 00 UTC: 11.1 S / 50.6 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 60H: 2016/04/20 12 UTC: 12.3 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND=095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 72H: 2016/04/21 00 UTC: 13.5 S / 53.3 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK : 96H: 2016/04/22 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 54.8 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 120H: 2016/04/23 00 UTC: 15.2 S / 55.4 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=7.0 CI=7.5- ALTHOUGH THE CLOUD TOPS WARMED SOMEWHAT OVERNIGHT, THE EYE REMAINS CIRCULAR AND WARM (N19 PASS REPORTED THE SAME MAX BRIGHTNESS TEMP WITHIN THE EYE THAT THE EARLIER METOP-A PASS WITH 23.4AOC. IF THE DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED, THE INTENSITY IS LOWERED AT 130 KT. FANTALA REMAINS AN IMPRESSIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND RECENTLY THE CLOUD TOPS HAS COOLED AGAIN. THE SYSTEM HAS STARTED TO SLOW DOWN AS IT STILL TRACKS WEST-NORTH-WESTWARDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF A HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL CELL LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, WITH A RIDGE AXIS OVER MADAGASCAR. TODAY, THIS CELL IS FORECAST TO SHIFT PROGRESSIVELY EASTWARD AND LEAVE ROOM FOR A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. FANTALA SHOULD BE LOCATED WITHIN A COL WITH OPPOSITE STEERING FLOWS. SO, FANTALA IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN.TONIGHT, FANTALA SHOULD STOP ITS WESTWARDS TRACK AND BEGIN A SHARP TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST UNDER THE NORTHEASTERN STEERING FLOW OF A BUILDING MID-LEVEL NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE. GIVENT THE ONGOING TREND, THE POINT OF RECURVATURE HAS AGAIN SHIFT A LITTLE WESTWARDS ... AND IT MAY BE BE POSSIBLE THAT IT COULD EVEN BE MORE TO THE WEST ... CLOSE TO THE COSMOLEDO AND ASTOVE ISLANDS (SEYCHELLES) LOCATED TO THE EAST-SOUTH-EAST OF ALDABRA. SOME WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THAT TIME DUE TO SELF-INDUCED UPWELLING. FROM TUESDAY, FANTALA SHOULD CONTINUE ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE TWICE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH-EAST AND AHEAD A WIDE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. WITHIN STILL FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO RE-INTENSIFY AS IT WILL REACH SOME WARMER WATERS. THERE IS A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE TRACK FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK SEEN IN MOST OF DYNAMICAL AIDS: THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD NOT BE DEEP ENOUGH TO CAPTURE FANTALA AND WILL LIKELY BYPASS THE CYCLONE. FANTALA COULD MOVE AGAIN THROUGH A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND SHOULD SLOW DOWN. THE LATITUDE OF THIS SECOND EXPECTED STOP IS CRITICAL TO DETERMINE HOW FANTALA MAY SUFFER FROM THE RATHER STRONG EXPECTED UPPER LEVEL WESTERLIES THAT SHOULD PREVAIL SOUTH OF 15S. HOWEVER THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS FAVORABLE AND A GENERAL WEAKENING TREND IS SEEN AMONG THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE.=