WTIO30 FMEE 180632



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 29/8/20152016

1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE  8  (FANTALA)



2.A POSITION 2016/04/18 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3 S / 49.6 E

(NINE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE    DECIMAL SIX

DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST-NORTH-WEST 6 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 7.5/7.5/D 0.5/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 915 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 130 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :13 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 110 SE: 350 SW: 310 NW: 220

34 KT NE: 80 SE: 150 SW: 160 NW: 130

48 KT NE: 60 SE: 90 SW: 90 NW: 70

64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 60



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/04/18 18 UTC: 9.3 S / 49.2 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

24H: 2016/04/19 06 UTC: 9.5 S / 49.0 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

36H: 2016/04/19 18 UTC: 10.1 S / 49.7 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

48H: 2016/04/20 06 UTC: 11.0 S / 51.1 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

60H: 2016/04/20 18 UTC: 12.3 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE

TROPICAL CYCLONE

72H: 2016/04/21 06 UTC: 13.4 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2016/04/22 06 UTC: 14.4 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

120H: 2016/04/23 06 UTC: 14.2 S / 53.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=7.5- CI=7.5-



DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS, FANTALA'S EYE HAS REMAINED CIRCULAR AND WARM

(18.4AOC OF MAX BRIGHTNESS TEMP WITHIN THE EYE REPORTED BY THE

LASTEST METOP-2 PASS AT 05.59Z) AND THE CLOUD TOPS HAS REMAIND VERY

COOL. THE LAST MW PICTURES (GPM 01.26Z, SSMIS 03.31Z) DEPICT AN EYE

WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, THAT SHOULD INVOLVE A WEAKENING OF FANTALA

AND AN EXPANSION OF THE RMW FOR THE NEXT HOURS.



THE SYSTEM IS SLOWING DOWN AS IT IS STILL TRACKING

WEST-NORTH-WESTWARDS OVER THE NORTHERN AND NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF A

HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL CELL LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR, WITH A RIDGE AXIS

OVER MADAGASCAR. TODAY, THIS CELL IS FORECAST TO SHIFT PROGRESSIVELY

EASTWARD AND LEAVE ROOM FOR A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. FANTALA SHOULD BE

LOCATED WITHIN A COL WITH OPPOSITE STEERING FLOWS. SO, FANTALA IS

FORECAST TO BEGIN TO SLOW DOWN.TONIGHT, FANTALA SHOULD STOP ITS

WESTWARDS TRACK AND BEGIN A  SHARP TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST UNDER

THE NORTHEASTERN STEERING FLOW OF A BUILDING MID-LEVEL

NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE.

THE POINT OF RECURVATURE COULD BE CLOSE TO THE COSMOLEDO AND ASTOVE

ISLANDS (SEYCHELLES) LOCATED TO THE EAST-SOUTH-EAST OF ALDABRA. SOME

WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED DURING THAT TIME DUE TO SELF-INDUCED

UPWELLING.



FROM TUESDAY, FANTALA SHOULD CONTINUE ITS SOUTHEASTWARD TRAJECTORY

UNDER THE TWICE INFLUENCE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE

NORTH-EAST AND AHEAD A WIDE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. WITHIN STILL

FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS, THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE ABLE TO

RE-INTENSIFY AS IT WILL REACH SOME WARMER WATERS.



FROM THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY FANTALA IS LIKELY TO MOVE AGAIN THROUGH

A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND SHOULD SLOW DOWN. THE UPPER LEVEL

PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS FAVORABLE AND A GENERAL WEAKENING

TREND IS SEEN AMONG THE VARIOUS GUIDANCE.=