WTIO30 FMEE 181238 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 30/8/20152016 1.A VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FANTALA) 2.A POSITION 2016/04/18 AT 1200 UTC: WITHIN 10 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3 S / 49.3 E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : WEST 3 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 7.0/7.5/W 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 910 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 130 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :20 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 220 SE: 240 SW: 250 NW: 220 34 KT NE: 100 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 100 48 KT NE: 80 SE: 80 SW: 100 NW: 80 64 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 70 NW: 60 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1009 HPA / 500 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2016/04/19 00 UTC: 9.4 S / 48.9 E, MAX WIND=120 KT, VERY INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H: 2016/04/19 12 UTC: 9.8 S / 49.3 E, MAX WIND=110 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H: 2016/04/20 00 UTC: 10.5 S / 50.4 E, MAX WIND=100 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 48H: 2016/04/20 12 UTC: 11.4 S / 51.6 E, MAX WIND=090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 60H: 2016/04/21 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 52.4 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 72H: 2016/04/21 12 UTC: 13.5 S / 53.1 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK : 96H: 2016/04/22 12 UTC: 13.8 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 120H: 2016/04/23 12 UTC: 12.7 S / 51.5 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=7.0-, CI=7.5- DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS, FANTALA'S EYE HAS REMAINED CIRCULAR AND WARM. THE CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED SLGHTLY. THE LAST SATELLITE PICTURES SHOW A VERY GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE. THE SYSTEM IS STILL SLOWING DOWN WESTWARDS. THE HIGH GEOPOTENTIAL CELL LOCATED SOUTH OF MADAGASCAR IS WEAKENING AND FANTALA COULD STOP NEXT NIGHT. TOMORROW, UNDER THE DOUBLE INFLUENCE OF A MID-TROPOSPHERIC NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE BUILDING IN THE NORTH-EAST, AND AHEAD OF A WIDE MID-LATITUDES TROUGH, FATALA SHOULD TRACK FASTER AGAIN SOUTH-EASTWARDS. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SAME NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE, AND ANOTHER TROUGH SOUTHWARDS, THE TRACK COULD BEND SLIGHTLY SOUTH-SOUTH-EASTWARDS. FRIDAY, ANOTHER MID-TROPOSPHERIC CELL OF HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS IS LIKELY TO REBUILT OVER MADAGASCAR, AND THE SYSTEM COULD STOP AGAIN, AND THEN RECURVE NORTH-WESTWARDS. THE MORE RELIABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS TRACK AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TONIGHT, ACCORDING TO THE SLOWER MOTION OF THE METEOR, AND ITS TURN BACK OVER REDUCED OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WATERS, FANTALA SHOULD WEAKEN, EVEN IF THE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS OF DIVERGENCE REMAIN VERY FAVORABLE. FROM WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE, BUT THE OHC COULD INCREASE A LITTLE, AND THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO REMAIN AT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE STAGE. ACCORDING TO THE LAST FORECASTED TRACK, THE UPPER LEVEL WINDSHEAR IS NOT LIKELY TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.=