WTIO30 FMEE 190036



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 32/8/20152016

1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE  8  (FANTALA)



2.A POSITION 2016/04/19 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3 S / 49.9 E

(NINE    DECIMAL THREE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FORTY NINE    DECIMAL NINE

DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : EAST 2 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/6.0/W 2.5/12 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 940 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 100 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :33 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 280 SE: 440 SW: 440 NW: 280

34 KT NE: 220 SE: 330 SW: 330 NW: 220

48 KT NE: 150 SE: 190 SW: 190 NW: 150

64 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 110 NW: 90



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 700 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/04/19 12 UTC: 9.5 S / 50.8 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

24H: 2016/04/20 00 UTC: 10.3 S / 51.9 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

36H: 2016/04/20 12 UTC: 11.4 S / 53.5 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

48H: 2016/04/21 00 UTC: 12.5 S / 54.9 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

60H: 2016/04/21 12 UTC: 13.7 S / 55.8 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL

CYCLONE

72H: 2016/04/22 00 UTC: 14.2 S / 56.2 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2016/04/23 00 UTC: 13.8 S / 55.6 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

120H: 2016/04/24 00 UTC: 12.7 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=4.5, CI=6.0



DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE SYTEM HAS MOVED AGAIN SLOWLY EASTWARD.

INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A DRASTIC DEGRADATION OF THE CLOUD

PATTERN WITH AN EYE WHICH HAS DISAPEARED. AMSUB 85 GHZ MICRO-WAVE

IMAGERY SHOWED A COMPLETELY ERODED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE

AS SOON AS 1825Z.



THE SLOWING DOWN HAS LINKED TO 2 OPPOSITE FLOWS GENERATED BY A

MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE LOCATED IN THE MOZAMBIQUE AND AN ANOTHER ONE

LOCATED NORTHEASTERN. FROM TOMOROW, UNDER THE DOUBLE INFLUENCE OF THE

INCREASING NEAR-EQUATORIAL RIDGE IN THE NORTH-EAST, AND AHEAD OF A

WIDE MID-LATITUDES TROUGH, FATALA SHOULD TRACK FASTER AGAIN

SOUTH-EASTWARDS.

THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER THE TRACK UP TO THURSDAY. FROM WEDNESDAY,

THE NEW PHILOSOPHY OF THE TRACK APPEARED YESTERDAY IS CONFIRMED. THE

MID-LATITUDE TROUGH SHOULD SHIFT EASTWARD AND A NEW HIGHT

GEOPOTENTIAL CELL IS FORECASTED TO ARRIVE OVER THE SOUTHERN

MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL AND PROGRESSIVELY EXTEND TOWARD THE MASCAREIGNES

ARCHIPELAGO. THE DOOR TOWARDS THE MID-LATITUDE ESTABLISHED BY THE

TROUGH SHOULD CLOSE AND THE SYSTEME SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE

NORTHWESTERN STEERED BY A MID LEVEL SOUTHWESTERN FLOW.

THE MORE RELIABLE NWP MODELS ARE IN RATHER GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS

NEW TURN FROM WEDNESDAY NORTH OF 15S.



TODAY, WITH THE ACCELERATION TOWARD THE EASTSOUTHEASTWARD, HELPED BY

A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, THE CLOUD PATTERN COULD IMPROVE.

HOWEVER, THIS IMPROVEMENT SHOULD BE RESTRICTED BY OCEAN HEAT CONTENT

AS THE SYSTEM TURNING BACK.

FROM WEDNESDAY, THE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME LESS

FAVORABLE WITH DIVERGENCE LESS GOOD AND A NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY

CONSTRAINT. BUT THE OHC COULD INCREASE A LITTLE. SO FANTALA INTENSITY

IS LIKELY TO DECREASE SLOWLY FROM WEDNESDAY AND NOT MUCH EVOLVE FROM

WEDNESDAY.=