WTIO30 FMEE 220128 RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER: 44/8/20152016 1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 8 (FANTALA) 2.A POSITION 2016/04/22 AT 0000 UTC: WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1 S / 57.1 E (THIRTEEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) MOVEMENT : EAST-SOUTH-EAST 4 KT 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 950 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :9 KM 6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM): 28 KT NE: 100 SE: 70 SW: 90 NW: 90 34 KT NE: 60 SE: 60 SW: 60 NW: 70 48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 50 64 KT NE: 30 SE: 30 SW: 30 NW: 30 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 300 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2016/04/22 12 UTC: 13.1 S / 57.1 E, MAX WIND=085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H: 2016/04/23 00 UTC: 12.9 S / 56.4 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H: 2016/04/23 12 UTC: 12.4 S / 55.3 E, MAX WIND=080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE 48H: 2016/04/24 00 UTC: 11.7 S / 53.8 E, MAX WIND=060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 60H: 2016/04/24 12 UTC: 10.9 S / 52.5 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 72H: 2016/04/25 00 UTC: 10.0 S / 51.3 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE TROPICAL STORM 2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK : 96H: 2016/04/26 00 UTC: 9.1 S / 48.5 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 120H: 2016/04/27 00 UTC: 8.6 S / 45.3 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW 2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: T=CI=5.5- FANTALA HAS UNDERGONE A RAPID INTENSIFICATION PERIOD DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS. AT 1830 UTC, A WARM SPOT APPEARED ANS THEN BECAME A SOLID EYE PATTERN WITH INCRESINGLY WARMING AND BETTER DEFINED EYE. ON MET-7 IMAGERY, THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION WERE AT 5.5 BETWEEN 21 UTC AND 2330 UTC AND START TO STRONGLY DETERIORATE JUST AFTER THAT TIME WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT COOLING OF THE EYE. 3H AVERAGE OF THE RAW MANUAL DT IS AT 5.4 AT 2330 AND 0000 UTC. GIVEN THE VERY SMALL SIZE OF THE SYSTEM (MIDGET CYCLONE), 6 HOURS DVORAK CONSTRAINT ARE BROKEN. MOREOVER, A N19 PASS AT 2227Z GIVE A DT AT 6.0 WITH THE WARMEST PIXEL OF THE EYE AT 21.5AOC. ADT FOUND THE EYE PATTERN ONLY SINCE 21 UTC BUT GIVE RAW T-NUM AT 5.7. GIVEN ALL THIS DATA, THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KT (THROUGH IT IS STILL HARD TO ASSESS INTENSITY FOR SUCH SMALL AND RAPIDLY CHANGING SYSTEM) THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH BUT LATEST AVAILABLE GUIDANCES (INCLUDING THE SPREAD OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE FORECAST) ARE MORE PACKED AROUND A BACKWARDS TRACK .. THAT COULD BRING (AGAIN) THE SYSTEM NEAR THE FARQUAHR ARCHIPELAGO LATER THIS WEEK-END OR EARLY NEXT WEEK: THE WIDE MID/UPPER TROPOPHERE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, SOUTH OF SYSTEM, WHICH STEERS EASTSOUTHEASTWARD FANTALA, IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD. BEHIND, THE ARRIVAL OF A HIGHT GEOPOTENTIAL CELL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD A LOW/MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE BASIN. THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE PROGRESSIVELY A SOUTHEASTWARD STEERING FLOW. THE CURRENT STRENGTHENING TREND DO NOT RADICALLY CHANGE THE INTENSITY FORECAST EXCEPT FOR THE SHORT RANGE. WITH THE LITTLE MOTION EXPECTED TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE REWARDS TRACK, THE QUESTION OF HOW MUCH OCEANIC ERNERGY IS AVAILABLE WILL REMAIN. IF THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AT LOW LEVEL UP TO SATURDAY NIGHT, AN INCREASE OF THE WESTERLY SHEAR (RELATIVE COMPONENT MAINLY) SHOULD IMPEDE THE SYSTEM. LASTLY, SOME VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR ARE TAKING PLACE AT WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM AND IT WOULD NOT BE HARD FOR THE DRY AIR TO WRAP IN AND ASPHYXIATE THE SMALL CIRCULATION OF FANTALA. THEREFORE OF THE FARQUAHAR ARCHIPELAGO ARE AGAIN ON THE TRACK OF FANTALA, THE IMPACT IS LIKELY LESS IMPORTANT THAN FROM THE TWO PREVIOUS.=