WTIO30 FMEE 220637



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 45/8/20152016

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE  8  (FANTALA)



2.A POSITION 2016/04/22 AT 0600 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.1 S / 57.1 E

(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL ONE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN    DECIMAL

ONE   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT :   QUASI-STATIONARY



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.0/5.0/W 1.5/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 970 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 75 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :9 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 110 SE: 130 SW: 130 NW: 90

34 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 70 NW: 60

48 KT NE: 40 SE: 40 SW: 40 NW: 40

64 KT NE: 20 SE: 20 SW: 20 NW: 20



7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1011 HPA / 400 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : UNKNOWN



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/04/22 18 UTC: 13.0 S / 57.2 E, MAX WIND=050 KT, SEVERE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2016/04/23 06 UTC: 12.8 S / 56.2 E, MAX WIND=045 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2016/04/23 18 UTC: 12.3 S / 55.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

48H: 2016/04/24 06 UTC: 11.4 S / 53.5 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

60H: 2016/04/24 18 UTC: 10.4 S / 52.0 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, LOW

72H: 2016/04/25 06 UTC: 9.5 S / 50.7 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, LOW



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :

96H: 2016/04/26 06 UTC: 9.3 S / 48.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW

120H: 2016/04/27 06 UTC: 8.9 S / 44.9 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, REMNANT LOW



2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=4.0, CI=5.0-



FANTALA HAS WEAKENED RAPIDLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. AT 06Z, THE

SYSTEM HAS ADOPTED A SMALL CDO PATTERN. THE HRV IMAGES DEPICT A

RESIDUAL WARM POINT. THE MW SSMIS AT 02.29Z DISPLAYED A PIN HOLE EYE,

WITH A WELL DEFINED RING OF DEEP CONVECTION.

ACCORDING TO THE MIDGET SIZE OF FANTALA, THE DVORAK CONSTRAINTS HAVE

BEEN BROKEN.



THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED. THE LATEST AVAILABLE

GUIDANCES ARE PACKED AROUND A BACKWARDS TRACK THAT COULD BRING AGAIN

THE SYSTEM NEAR THE FARQUAHR ARCHIPELAGO LATER THIS WEEK-END OR EARLY

NEXT WEEK.

THE WIDE MID/UPPER TROPOPHERE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, SOUTH OF SYSTEM,

WHICH STEERS EASTSOUTHEASTWARD FANTALA, IS FORECASTED TO SHIFT

EASTWARD. BEHIND, THE ARRIVAL OF A HIGHT GEOPOTENTIAL CELL IS

EXPECTED TO BUILD A LOW/MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE OVER THE BASIN.

THIS PATTERN SHOULD GENERATE PROGRESSIVELY A SOUTHEASTWARD STEERING

FLOW.



WITH THE LITTLE MOTION EXPECTED TODAY FOLLOWED BY THE REWARDS TRACK,

THE QUESTION OF HOW MUCH OCEANIC ERNERGY IS AVAILABLE WILL REMAIN. IF

THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN AT LOW LEVEL TODAY, AN INCREASE OF

THE WESTERLY SHEAR (RELATIVE COMPONENT MAINLY) SHOULD IMPEDE THE

SYSTEM FROM SATURDAY. SOME VERY DRY MID LEVEL AIR COULD WRAP IN AND

ASPHYXIATE THE SMALL CIRCULATION OF FANTALA.

ACCORDING TO THIS EXPECTED UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENT CONDITIONS, THE

FORECAST OF INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED WITH A MORE RAPID WEAKENING OF

THE SYSTEM.=