WTXS31 PGTW 230900 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FANTALA) WARNING NR 024// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FANTALA) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 230600Z --- NEAR 12.3S 56.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.3S 56.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 11.9S 54.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 11.2S 53.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 241800Z --- 10.5S 51.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 9.8S 49.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 8.7S 46.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 7.9S 43.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 280600Z --- 6.3S 40.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 230900Z POSITION NEAR 12.2S 55.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FANTALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 473 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RECENT MICROWAVE AND MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. THE INTENSITY OF 60 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND AUTOMATED SATELLITE INTENSITY CONSENSUS DATA. TC 19S IS TRACKING WEST- NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE CYCLONE HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS DUE TO INCREASING WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND PASSAGE OVER COOL WATER UPWELLED BY THE SYSTEM DURING THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN SHIFTED DOWNWARD BASED ON THE RECENT TREND AND ANTICIPATED CONTINUATION OF UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND INTERACTION WITH THE COOL SEA SURFACE. DISSIPATION IS NOW ANTICIPATED BY TAU 96. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 230600Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 232100Z AND 240900Z.//