WTXS51 PGTW 130900 WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 160413073206 2016041306 19S FANTALA 004 01 270 12 SATL 010 T000 129S 0667E 080 R064 020 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 020 NW QD R050 035 NE QD 050 SE QD 050 SW QD 035 NW QD R034 070 NE QD 090 SE QD 090 SW QD 075 NW QD T012 129S 0647E 095 R064 030 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 030 NW QD R050 050 NE QD 065 SE QD 060 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 080 NE QD 105 SE QD 105 SW QD 080 NW QD T024 129S 0630E 110 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 050 NW QD R034 085 NE QD 115 SE QD 120 SW QD 085 NW QD T036 128S 0614E 120 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 125 SE QD 125 SW QD 105 NW QD T048 126S 0596E 125 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 125 SE QD 125 SW QD 105 NW QD T072 122S 0567E 125 R064 035 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 035 NW QD R050 055 NE QD 075 SE QD 070 SW QD 055 NW QD R034 090 NE QD 125 SE QD 125 SW QD 105 NW QD T096 116S 0543E 120 T120 110S 0527E 115 AMP SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FANTALA) WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR 12.9S 66.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 010 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.9S 66.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 12.9S 64.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 12.9S 63.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 12.8S 61.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 12.6S 59.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 12.2S 56.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 11.6S 54.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 11.0S 52.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 130900Z POSITION NEAR 12.9S 66.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FANTALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 488 NM SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT WITH DEEPENING CORE CONVECTION SURROUNDING A 5-NM EYE FEATURE THAT SUPPORTS THE CURRENT POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXPANDING RADIAL OUTFLOW AND AN INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC STRUCTURE. A 130252Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS DEEP CORE CONVECTION NOW FULLY SURROUNDING THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS BASED ON CONCURRING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.5 (77 KNOTS) FROM ALL REPORTING AGENCIES AND IS SUPPORTED BY THE NOTED IMPROVEMENT IN ALL IMAGERY. TC FANTALA IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH. THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN ON A WESTWARD TRAJECTORY THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST, A BUILDING NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH WILL SLOW THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE. TC 19S IS TRACKING IN A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), RADIAL OUTFLOW, VERY FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS SUPPORTING CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION, REACHING A PEAK OF 125 KNOTS. BEYOND TAU 72, INCREASING VWS AND DECREASED OUTFLOW WILL BEGIN A SLIGHT WEAKENING TREND. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED IN THE OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 132100Z AND 140900Z.// 1916041012 118S 750E 20 1916041018 122S 742E 20 1916041100 125S 734E 20 1916041106 127S 728E 25 1916041112 128S 722E 30 1916041118 129S 714E 35 1916041200 129S 705E 45 1916041206 129S 697E 60 1916041206 129S 697E 60 1916041212 129S 692E 60 1916041212 129S 692E 60 1916041218 129S 687E 65 1916041218 129S 687E 65 1916041300 129S 679E 65 1916041300 129S 679E 65 1916041306 129S 667E 80 1916041306 129S 667E 80 1916041306 129S 667E 80