WTXS51 PGTW 222100 WARNING ATCG MIL 19S SIO 160422200247 2016042218 19S FANTALA 023 01 360 01 SATL 050 T000 129S 0573E 080 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 045 NE QD 045 SE QD 045 SW QD 045 NW QD R034 075 NE QD 060 SE QD 060 SW QD 075 NW QD T012 126S 0564E 085 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD T024 121S 0551E 085 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD T036 114S 0536E 080 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 070 NW QD T048 106S 0521E 075 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD T072 093S 0487E 070 R064 025 NE QD 025 SE QD 025 SW QD 025 NW QD R050 040 NE QD 040 SE QD 040 SW QD 040 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 070 SE QD 070 SW QD 065 NW QD T096 084S 0453E 070 T120 076S 0418E 075 AMP SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FANTALA) WARNING NR 023 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 19S (FANTALA) WARNING NR 022 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 220600Z --- NEAR 13.2S 57.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 01 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.2S 57.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 13.0S 56.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 12.8S 55.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 12.4S 54.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 240600Z --- 11.7S 53.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 250600Z --- 10.5S 50.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 260600Z --- 9.8S 46.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 270600Z --- 9.4S 43.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- REMARKS: 220900Z POSITION NEAR 13.2S 56.9E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 19S (FANTALA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 414 NM NORTH OF PORT LOUIS, MAURITIUS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 01 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A COMPACT, CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A 10-NM EYE. A 220242Z SSMIS IMAGE ALSO INDICATES IMPROVED CORE STRUCTURE WITH A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 90 KNOTS BASED ON CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 90 TO 102 KNOTS AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 89 KNOTS AT 0230Z. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE IMPROVED OVERALL OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY POLEWARD OUTFLOW. TC 19S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SLOWLY WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BUT IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AFTER TAU 12 AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS TO THE SOUTH. AVAILABLE DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE TRACK THROUGH TAU 120. TC 19S IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 110 KNOTS BY TAU 24 UNDER FAVORABLE CONDITIONS. ALTHOUGH SST REMAIN FAVORABLE AFTER TAU 72, UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN NORTH OF MADAGASCAR, WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO GRADUAL WEAKENING AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS WESTWARD. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 220600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 222100Z AND 230900Z.// 1916041012 118S 750E 20 1916041018 122S 742E 20 1916041100 125S 734E 20 1916041106 127S 728E 25 1916041112 128S 722E 30 1916041118 129S 714E 35 1916041200 129S 705E 45 1916041206 129S 697E 60 1916041206 129S 697E 60 1916041212 129S 692E 60 1916041212 129S 692E 60 1916041218 129S 687E 65 1916041218 129S 687E 65 1916041300 129S 677E 65 1916041300 129S 677E 65 1916041306 128S 667E 80 1916041306 128S 667E 80 1916041306 128S 667E 80 1916041312 127S 659E 85 1916041312 127S 659E 85 1916041312 127S 659E 85 1916041318 127S 650E 85 1916041318 127S 650E 85 1916041318 127S 650E 85 1916041400 126S 642E 95 1916041400 126S 642E 95 1916041400 126S 642E 95 1916041406 125S 634E 105 1916041406 125S 634E 105 1916041406 125S 634E 105 1916041412 124S 625E 100 1916041412 124S 625E 100 1916041412 124S 625E 100 1916041418 123S 616E 100 1916041418 123S 616E 100 1916041418 123S 616E 100 1916041500 123S 607E 95 1916041500 123S 607E 95 1916041500 123S 607E 95 1916041506 123S 597E 105 1916041506 123S 597E 105 1916041506 123S 597E 105 1916041512 124S 587E 120 1916041512 124S 587E 120 1916041512 124S 587E 120 1916041518 124S 580E 130 1916041518 124S 580E 130 1916041518 124S 580E 130 1916041600 124S 571E 130 1916041600 124S 571E 130 1916041600 124S 571E 130 1916041606 123S 563E 130 1916041606 123S 563E 130 1916041606 123S 563E 130 1916041612 120S 553E 130 1916041612 120S 553E 130 1916041612 120S 553E 130 1916041618 115S 544E 135 1916041618 115S 544E 135 1916041618 115S 544E 135 1916041700 111S 535E 135 1916041700 111S 535E 135 1916041700 111S 535E 135 1916041706 106S 526E 135 1916041706 106S 526E 135 1916041706 106S 526E 135 1916041712 103S 517E 140 1916041712 103S 517E 140 1916041712 103S 517E 140 1916041718 98S 508E 150 1916041718 98S 508E 150 1916041718 98S 508E 150 1916041800 94S 501E 150 1916041800 94S 501E 150 1916041800 94S 501E 150 1916041806 93S 497E 150 1916041806 93S 497E 150 1916041806 93S 497E 150 1916041812 93S 495E 145 1916041812 93S 495E 145 1916041812 93S 495E 145 1916041818 93S 493E 135 1916041818 93S 493E 135 1916041818 93S 493E 135 1916041900 92S 496E 120 1916041900 92S 496E 120 1916041900 92S 496E 120 1916041906 93S 500E 105 1916041906 93S 500E 105 1916041906 93S 500E 105 1916041912 95S 506E 95 1916041912 95S 506E 95 1916041912 95S 506E 95 1916041918 97S 512E 85 1916041918 97S 512E 85 1916041918 97S 512E 85 1916042000 100S 520E 95 1916042000 100S 520E 95 1916042000 100S 520E 95 1916042006 105S 527E 105 1916042006 105S 527E 105 1916042006 105S 527E 105 1916042012 109S 535E 105 1916042012 109S 535E 105 1916042012 109S 535E 105 1916042018 115S 541E 105 1916042018 115S 541E 105 1916042018 115S 541E 105 1916042100 120S 549E 105 1916042100 120S 549E 105 1916042100 120S 549E 105 1916042106 123S 556E 90 1916042106 123S 556E 90 1916042106 123S 556E 90 1916042112 127S 563E 80 1916042112 127S 563E 80 1916042112 127S 563E 80 1916042118 129S 566E 80 1916042118 129S 566E 80 1916042118 129S 566E 80 1916042200 131S 570E 90 1916042200 131S 570E 90 1916042200 131S 570E 90 1916042206 132S 571E 90 1916042206 132S 571E 90 1916042206 132S 571E 90