WTNT42 KNHC 281447 RRA

TCDAT2



TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   4

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016

1100 AM EDT SAT MAY 28 2016



SATELLITE AND NOAA WSR-88D RADAR DATA INDICATE THAT DEEP CONVECTION

HAS INCREASED IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE DEPRESSION'S

CIRCULATION SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. HOWEVER, THE DEPRESSION

REMAINS A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE DUE TO SOUTHEASTERLY UPPER-LEVEL

WINDS OF 20-25 KT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT

INVESTIGATED THE CYCLONE THIS MORNING AND OBTAINED RELIABLE SFMR

SURFACE WINDS OF AT LEAST 30 KT.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES

WERE ALSO T2.0/30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB, SO THE INTENSITY IS

BEING MAINTAINED AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.



MICROWAVE SATELLITE AND RECON FIX POSITIONS INDICATE THAT THE

CYCLONE HAS MADE A JOG TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE PAST SIX

HOURS. HOWEVER, SMOOTHING THROUGH THESE SHORT-TERM WOBBLES YIELDS A

12-HOUR MOTION OF 310/11 KT. THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS ACTUALLY DID

QUITE WELL IN PREDICTING THIS RECENT SHORT-TERM WOBBLE, AND BOTH

MODELS TURN THE DEPRESSION MORE TOWARD THE RIGHT, ACCOMPANIED BY

A STEADY DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE

CYCLONE NEARS THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. AS A RESULT, THE NEW NHC

FORECAST TRACK LIES SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY

TRACK THROUGH 12 HOURS, PRIMARILY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE WESTWARD

INITIAL POSITION, AND THEN IS NEAR THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND A BLEND

OF THE GFS-ECMWF MODEL CONSENSUS TRACK AT 24 HOURS AND BEYOND.



THE DEPRESSION IS BEGINNING TO MOVE OVER THE EASTERN WALL OF THE

GULF STREAM WHERE SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 27-28 DEG C. OUTER=