WTNT42 KNHC 292033 RRA

TCDAT2



TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016

500 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016



THE MUCH ANTICIPATED REDUCTION IN BONNIE'S FORWARD MOTION APPEARS TO

HAVE OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON.  SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, THE

TROPICAL CYCLONE JOGGED WESTWARD AND HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY

JUST NORTHWEST OF CHARLESTON, SOUTH CAROLINA.  THE HIGHEST WIND

OBSERVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN 25-30 KT AT THE FORT PULASKI

C-MAN SITE NEAR THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER AROUND 1700 UTC.

SINCE THE TIME, THE HIGHEST WIND REPORTS HAVE BEEN 20-25 KT OVER

WATER, AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 25 KT FOR THIS

ADVISORY.



BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO MEANDER NEAR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL COAST OF SOUTH

CAROLINA OVERNIGHT, BEFORE BEGINNING A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION ON

MONDAY AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE

OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.  IN 2 TO 3 DAYS, A SLIGHTLY FASTER

NORTHEASTWARD OR EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST AS THE LOW-

TO MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST STRENGTHENS.

THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT OF THIS SCENARIO,

BUT THERE ARE SOME FORWARD SPEED DIFFERENCES, ESPECIALLY BEYOND 72

HOURS.  THE NHC TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS

ONCE AGAIN CLOSE TO THE GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS.



SINCE A PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER WATER

DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS, LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED.

AFTER EXITING THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA IN ABOUT 72 HOURS, THE

CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER COOL WATERS, WHICH SHOULD CAUSE BONNIE

TO BECOME POST-TROPICAL.=