WTNT42 KNHC 300231 RRA

TCDAT2



TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016

1100 PM EDT SUN MAY 29 2016



TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE HAS BEEN MEANDERING OVER THE LOW COUNTRY

OF SOUTH CAROLINA THIS EVENING.  SATELLITE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE

THAT THE ASSOCIATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN SHRINKING

IN COVERAGE AND ARE PRIMARILY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE

CIRCULATION OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH CAROLINA, WITH SOME OUTER

BANDS OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.  THE CIRCULATION OF THE SYSTEM

HAS BECOME A LITTLE LESS DEFINED THIS EVENING WITH SOME EVIDENCE OF

MULTIPLE VORTICES, AND THE OVERALL APPEARANCE OF THE CYCLONE IS

QUITE RAGGED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT, WHICH IS A

LITTLE HIGHER THAN REPORTS FROM THE NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.



BONNIE HAS NOT MOVED MUCH SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY, AND THE

LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD DRIFT,

OR 160/1 KT.  THE DEPRESSION SHOULD MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OR

EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY WHEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES

THE CYCLONE.  AFTER THAT TIME, A SLIGHTLY FASTER NORTHEASTWARD OR

EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS PREDICTED WHILE BONNIE MOVES ALONG

THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM.  THIS

STEERING PATTERN SHOULD TAKE THE DEPRESSION, OR ITS REMNANTS,

ACROSS THE COASTLINE OF THE CAROLINAS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND

THEN OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN.  THE NEW TRACK

FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE

TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF

CONSENSUS.



LAND INTERACTION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT=