WTNT42 KNHC 300858 RRA

TCDAT2



TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022016

500 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016



RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT BONNIE HAS MOVED

EASTWARD AND IS NOW LOCATED ALONG THE COASTLINE JUST EAST OF

CHARLESTON, SOUTH CAROLINA. A LATE-ARRIVING RAPIDSCAT PASS FROM 0029

UTC SHOWED SEVERAL 25-27 KT SURFACE WIND VECTORS IN A RAIN-FREE AREA

50-80 NMI SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER. SINCE THAT TIME, SOME

MODEST SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED IN THAT SAME REGION, WHICH

SUPPORTS MAINTAINING BONNIE AS A 25-KT DEPRESSION ON THIS ADVISORY.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/04 KT. BONNIE IS EXPECTED TO

REMAIN A VERTICALLY SHALLOW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE

FORECAST PERIOD, AND SHOULD BE STEERED SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD TO

EAST-NORTHEASTWARD BY AN APPROACHING 700-500 MB SHORTWAVE TROUGH

THAT IS EXPECTED TO CAPTURE THE SMALL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 12

HOURS OR SO BASED ON RECENT TRENDS IN WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY.

BY WEDNESDAY, BONNIE'S FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS THE

CYCLONE MOVES ALONG THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE BERMUDA-AZORES

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD TAKE BONNIE AND ITS

REMNANTS ACROSS THE COASTLINE OF THE CAROLINAS DURING THE NEXT 2-3

DAYS, AND THEN OFFSHORE INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN BY DAYS 4

AND 5. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY

TRACK, AND REMAINS CLOSE TO THE GFS-ECMWF MODEL CONSENSUS.



BONNIE HAS BEEN CONVECTIVELY CHALLENGED FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. ONLY

NARROW BANDS OF WEAK TO MODERATE CONVECTION HAVE PERSISTED NEAR THE

CENTER OVER LAND DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS, AND LIMITED CONVECTION=