WTIO31 PGTW 271500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 271200Z --- NEAR 21.7N 64.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 21.7N 64.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 280000Z --- 21.6N 63.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 21.4N 62.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 21.1N 61.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 02 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 20.8N 61.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 21.0N 62.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 271500Z POSITION NEAR 21.7N 63.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 249 NM SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION BUILDING OVER THE LLCC. A 271029Z NOAA-19 89GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS A CURVED BAND OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE WEST QUADRANT. A 270544Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOWED 30 TO 35 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE, WHICH ALONG WITH A PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF T2.5 (35 KNOTS) SUPPORTS THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO OFFSET VWS AND ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH TAU 36. TC 02A IS FORECAST TO TRACK WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 48 AS IT TRACKS UNDER THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST. AFTER TAU 36, TC 02A SHOULD SLOW AND TURN SOUTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHWARD DUE TO A STRONG STR ENTRENCHED OVER THE ARABIAN PENINSULA. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AS VWS INCREASES AND POLEWARD OUTFLOW DECREASES. AFTER TAU 48, TC 02A WILL DISSIPATE AND THE REMNANTS WILL TRACK EASTWARD WITH THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK AND SYNOPTIC SCENARIO WITH KEY DIFFERENCES IN THE DEGREE AND TIMING OF THE TURN EASTWARD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 271200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 272100Z, 280300Z, 280900Z AND 281500Z.//