WTIO31 PGTW 280300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 280000Z --- NEAR 21.3N 62.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 255 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 21.3N 62.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 281200Z --- 21.0N 61.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 20.7N 61.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 01 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 20.6N 61.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 280300Z POSITION NEAR 21.2N 62.2E. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02A (TWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 329 NM SOUTHWEST OF KARACHI, PAKISTAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AREA OF CONVECTION THAT HAS STRUGGLED TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZATION IN THE PRESENCE OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A 272228z SSMI PASS SHOWS A BROAD LLCC WITH LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST. THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS AND IS BASED ON THE CURRENT INTENSITY DVORAK ESTIMATE FROM PGTW. THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DUE TO INCREASING VWS NOW AROUND 25 TO 30 KNOTS. HOWEVER, A MODEST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ASSOCIATED WITH A MID- LATITUDE TROUGH IS PRESENT, WHICH WILL HELP SUSTAIN THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND PROVIDE A BRIEF OPPORTUNITY FOR SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. TC 02A IS CURRENTLY TRACKING WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR). ANOTHER DEEP- LAYERED NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED STR IS POSITIONED OVER THE ARABIAN PENINSULA AND WILL SLOW THE TRACK BY TAU 24 AS TC 02A WEAKENS. THE REMNANTS OF TC 02A WILL TRACK EASTWARD AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOON WINDS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SCENARIO, BUT DIFFER IN THEIR EXTENDED TRACKS AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS, GIVING LOW CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.//