WTPZ43 KNHC 030237 RRA

TCDEP3



TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016

900 PM MDT SAT JUL 02 2016



THE DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WELL

SOUTHWEST OF MANZANILLO HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE

PAST 6 TO 12 HOURS, AND THIS SYSTEM IS NOW CLASSIFIED AS A TROPICAL

CYCLONE.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A LARGE CONVECTIVE CANOPY WITH

MULTIPLE CURVED BANDS.  THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION IS NEAR THE

EASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET

TO 30 KT BASED ON THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATION FROM TAFB.



THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR AT LEAST STEADY STRENGTHENING

DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS, AS THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER SSTS OF

29-30C AND IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE SHEAR AND ABUNDANT

MOISTURE.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS THE SYSTEM BECOMING A

TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY AND BECOMING A HURRICANE ON

MONDAY.  THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN INTENSITY IN 3 TO 4 DAYS

NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE GRADUAL WEAKENING BEGINS AS THE

CENTER MOVES OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS.  THE OFFICIAL

FORECAST IS ABOVE THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND CLOSE TO A BLEND OF

THE SHIPS, LGEM, AND HWRF MODELS.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/10 GIVEN THE

RECENT FORMATION OF THE SYSTEM.  THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM

THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A

SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN

UNITED STATES.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD GUIDE THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL

WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.  MOST=