WTPZ43 KNHC 042039 RRA

TCDEP3



HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016

200 PM PDT MON JUL 04 2016



BLAS' CLOUD PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THIS

MORNING, EXCEPT FOR THE EMERGENCE OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE A RAGGED,

BANDING-TYPE EYE.  THE CYCLONE'S CENTRAL FEATURES ARE STILL NOT THAT

WELL ORGANIZED, ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME RECENT SIGNS THAT THIS MAY

BE CHANGING.  A DRY SLOT OF AIR HAS ALSO BEEN WRAPPING AROUND THE

WESTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION.  DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS REMAIN T4.0

AND T4.5 FROM SAB AND TAFB, RESPECTIVELY. A 1652 UTC ASCAT OVERPASS

INDICATES THAT BLAS IS A MINIMAL HURRICANE AT BEST, AND THE INITIAL

INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS HELD AT 65 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.



THE LATEST FIXES INDICATE THAT THE INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER

AND HAS A BIT MORE OF A NORTHERLY COMPONENT THAN YESTERDAY.  THE

BEST ESTIMATE IS THAT THE CYCLONE IS MOVING 290/12.  OVERALL, THE

FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED.  BLAS SHOULD BE STEERED ON A WEST-

NORTHWESTWARD COURSE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF

A STRONG, DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD FROM

NORTHERN MEXICO.  A MORE NORTHWESTERLY TRACK IS POSSIBLE TOWARD THE

END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AS THE CYCLONE NEARS THE WESTERN END OF

THIS RIDGE.  THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE

NORTH IN THE SHORT TERM AND LIES ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE

GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  THE FORECAST DOES NOT DEVIATE MUCH FROM THE

PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND DAY 2 AND LIES NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL

CONSENSUS.



IT IS UNCLEAR AS TO WHY BLAS HAS NOT STRENGTHENED MUCH, ESPECIALLY

SINCE THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS CONDUCIVE FOR=