WTPZ43 KNHC 050841 RRA

TCDEP3



HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  10

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016

200 AM PDT TUE JUL 05 2016



BLAS HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE

CDO HAS IMPROVED AND THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN HAS

BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL. A RAGGED EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN

INFRARED IMAGERY AND IS NOW COMPLETELY SURROUNDED BY CLOUD TOPS

COLDER THAN -75C. RECENT AMSU AND ASCAT OVERPASSES HAVE HELPED

TO PLACE THE CENTER A LITTLE TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE POSITIONS NOTED

IN CONVENTIONAL INFRARED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN

INCREASED TO 85 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY

ESTIMATES OF T4.5/77 KT FROM TAFB AND NHC OBJECTIVE INTENSITIES

RANGING FROM T4.7-T5.0, AND THE CONTINUED IMPROVEMENT IN THE EYE

PATTERN DEPICTED IN CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY.



BASED PRIMARILY ON MICROWAVE SATELLITE FIXES, BLAS CONTINUES TO MOVE

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285/12 KT. THE HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO MOVE

IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWARD DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD

DUE TO A STRONG DEEP-LAYER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE REMAINING NEARLY

STATIONARY TO THE NORTH OF BLAS. THE LATEST NHC GLOBAL AND REGIONAL

MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THIS STABLE

STEERING PATTERN, AND THE MODELS ARE TIGHTLY PACKED AROUND THE

PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK. THEREFORE, ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE, AND

THE NEW FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE CONSENSUS TRACK MODEL TVCE.



BLAS HAS BEEN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS, AND AN

ADDITIONAL 12 HOURS OR SO OF SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS SUPPORTED

BY AN EXPANDING UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR=