WTPZ43 KNHC 062034 RRA

TCDEP3



HURRICANE BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER  16

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032016

200 PM PDT WED JUL 06 2016



BLAS HAS A VERY IMPRESSIVE SATELLITE PRESENTATION THIS AFTERNOON.

THE HURRICANE HAS A LARGE, DISTINCT EYE IN VISIBLE SATELLITE

IMAGES THAT IS SURROUNDED BY A VERY SYMMETRIC RING OF DEEP

CONVECTION.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED SINCE THIS

MORNING SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 110 KT HAS BEEN MAINTAINED.

THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT AS IT MOVES

OVER GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.  BLAS SHOULD

CROSS THE 26C ISOTHERM IN ABOUT 24 HOURS, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE

A FASTER RATE OF DECAY.  THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO BECOME

POST-TROPICAL IN ABOUT 96 HOURS, AND WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY DAY

5.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND LGEM

GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY CONSENSUS.



THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS 285/10 KT. BLAS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING

WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE IT MOVES AROUND

THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO.

AFTER THAT TIME, THE HURRICANE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD

BETWEEN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE AND A LARGE MID- TO

UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THE

SPREAD OF THE GUIDANCE REMAINS FAIRLY LARGE AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND,

HOWEVER, THE MODELS HAVE MOVED A LITTLE CLOSER TOGETHER WITH THE

GFS-BASED GUIDANCE SHIFTING SOUTHWARD WHILE THE ECMWF HAS NUDGED

NORTHWARD.  AS A RESULT, LITTLE CHANGE HAS BEEN MADE TO THE NHC

TRACK PREDICTION, WHICH LIES CLOSEST TO THE GFS/ECMWF (GFEX)

CONSENSUS AID.=