WTPA43 PHFO 252101

TCDCP3



TROPICAL DEPRESSION DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  57

NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI   EP052016

1100 AM HST MON JUL 25 2016



The low level center of Darby appeared to be trackable from

satellite, surface observations on Kauai, and helpful reports from

the NOAA ship Hiialakai overnight. Visible imagery this morning

shows Darby as a low level swirl west of Niihau and becoming

increasingly seperated from deep convection well north of Oahu. The

satellite-based current intensity estimates were 2.0 from CPHC and

JTWC, and 1.5 from SAB. There were some believable 30 kt winds

northeast of the center from the 16 UTC RapidScat pass, so the

intensity for this advisory will be maintained at 30 kt.



Shear has taken its toll on Darby and it seems quite unlikely that

the system will be able to recover. The remnant circulation will be

steered in part by the low level easterlies. Have adjusted the

forecast slightly to the left of the previous official forecast to

account for this as well as recent motion, which has been somewhat

erratic. Darby is expected to be a post-tropical remnant low within

12 hours, followed by dissipation by Tuesday.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  25/2100Z 22.2N 161.0W   30 KT  35 MPH

 12H  26/0600Z 22.6N 162.1W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 24H  26/1800Z 23.5N 163.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

 36H  27/0600Z...DISSIPATED



$$

Forecaster R Ballard