WTPZ41 KNHC 160243 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016

900 PM MDT FRI JUL 15 2016



THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IMPROVED THIS

EVENING WITH A CURVED BAND REACHING HALFWAY AROUND ITS

CENTER.  CORRESPONDINGLY, THE SUBJECTIVE TAFB AND SAB DVORAK

CLASSIFICATIONS EACH BUMPED UP TO A CI NUMBER OF 2.5, OR 35 KT.

THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH THE EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS WHICH

SHOWED A MAXIMUM OF 30 KT AT 17Z, WHEN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WAS

NOT AS ORGANIZED.  THUS THE SYSTEM IS NOW A TROPICAL STORM, BOTH THE

FIFTH ONE OF THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC SEASON AS WELL AS THE FIFTH

ONE IN A VERY BUSY TWO-WEEK PERIOD.



ESTELLE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KT, SOUTH

OF AN EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE CYCLONE SHOULD BE

STEERED TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER

FORWARD SPEED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  ALL OF THE RELIABLE GLOBAL

AND REGIONAL MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT AND THE

NHC OFFICIAL TRACK IS NEARLY THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY.



THE INTENSITY FORECAST, HOWEVER, IS A BIT MORE UNCERTAIN.  IN THE

SHORT TERM, THE ENVIRONMENT LOOKS GENERALLY CONDUCIVE WITH MODERATE

NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR, VERY WARM WATER, AND QUITE MOIST

CONDITIONS.  WHILE THE SHEAR DROPS TO VERY LOW VALUES IN ABOUT TWO

DAYS, ESTELLE SHOULD START MOVING OVER COOLER WATER INDUCED BY THE

UPWELLING AND MIXING FROM THE BLAS-CELIA-DARBY TRIO OF STORMS AHEAD

OF IT.  THUS IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT THE CYCLONE SHOULD STEADILY

INTENSIFY AND THEN IT MAY REACH ITS PEAK STRENGTH AT ABOUT DAY=