WTPZ41 KNHC 161446 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   5

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016

900 AM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016



CONVECTIVE BANDING ASSOCIATED WITH ESTELLE CONTINUES TO INCREASE

AND BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED, WITH A LARGE BAND WRAPPING AROUND THE

SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION, AND BROKEN BANDS OF

CONVECTION TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. RECENT MICROWAVE

AND EARLY-LIGHT VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER

OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE EARLIER

ESTIMATES, WHICH REQUIRED SOME RELOCATION OF ESTELLE FOR THIS

ADVISORY.  WITH THE INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION, DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE

RESPONDED ACCORDINGLY, AND SUPPORT RAISING THE INITIAL INTENSITY TO

45 KT.



ESTELLE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A MOIST AND LOW WIND SHEAR

ENVIRONMENT DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THESE CONDITIONS, ALONG

WITH WARM WATER ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK, SHOULD ALLOW FOR

STRENGTHENING, AND ESTELLE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE IN A

DAY OR SO.  AFTER THAT TIME, THE TRACK FORECAST TAKES THE CYCLONE

JUST NORTH OF THE COLD WAKE LEFT BEHIND BY PREVIOUS HURRICANES, AND

CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION IS LIKELY.  AFTER 72 HOURS, THE TROPICAL

CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER COOLER WATERS WHICH SHOULD INDUCE

GRADUAL WEAKENING.  THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE

VARIOUS INTENSITY MODELS, AND SHOWS A PEAK INTENSITY SLIGHTLY

HIGHER THAN THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE.



DUE TO THE RELOCATION OF THE CENTER, THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS

A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 290/7 KT, WHICH IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN BEFORE.

ESTELLE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING=