WTPZ41 KNHC 170241 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016

900 PM MDT SAT JUL 16 2016



THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE TO ESTELLE'S SATELLITE

PRESENTATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS, WITH STRONG CONVECTION

CONTINUING NEAR THE CENTER ALONG WITH A LARGE CURVED BAND IN THE

SOUTHERN AND WESTERN SEMICIRCLES.  MICROWAVE DATA SHOW THE CENTER

IS ON THE NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION: A SIGN THAT

THERE IS STILL SOME SHEAR AFFECTING THE CYCLONE.  SATELLITE

INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE BASICALLY UNCHANGED SINCE 6 HOURS AGO, SO

THE INITIAL WIND SPEED WILL REMAIN 45 KT.



WEAK-TO-MODERATE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR THE

NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER WARM WATERS.

STRENGTHENING SEEMS LIKELY THEN SINCE THE SHEAR ISN'T PROHIBITIVE,

AND ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THIS UPWARD TREND.  ESTELLE SHOULD BEGIN

TO ENCOUNTER MARGINALLY WARM WATERS AFTER DAY 3, WHICH IS LIKELY TO

INITIATE WEAKENING. THE LATEST FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE

PREVIOUS ONE, ABOVE THE MODEL CONSENSUS (WHICH HAS HAD A LOW

BIAS THIS SEASON) BUT CLOSE TO THE FLORIDA STATE SUPER ENSEMBLE

SOLUTION.



MICROWAVE DATA HAS BEEN HELPFUL THIS EVENING WITH THE INITIAL

POSITION AND MOTION, WITH ESTELLE CONTINUING TO MOVE WEST-

NORTHWESTWARD.  THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL

DAYS WHILE THE STORM REMAINS BENEATH A RATHER PERSISTENT RIDGE OVER

THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  OVERALL THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A

SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGE IN THE LONGER TERM THAN THE LAST MODEL

CYCLE, AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NUDGED MORE WESTWARD NEAR THE

END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.=