WTPZ41 KNHC 190833 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  16

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016

200 AM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016



ESTELLE HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. PASSIVE

MICROWAVE SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CYCLONE HAS A ROBUST AND

NEARLY SYMMETRICAL LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD, BUT PERIODIC INTRUSIONS OF

DRY MID-LEVEL AIR HAVE CONTINUED TO PREVENT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A

CLOSED EYEWALL. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 55 KT FOR THIS

ADVISORY BASED ON A CONSENSUS CI-NUMBER OF T3.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 285/09 KT. THERE REMAINS NO CHANGE TO

FORECAST REASONING FROM THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. ESTELLE IS EXPECTED

TO MOVE A LITTLE FASTER TO THE WEST TODAY, FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK

TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH

BEGINS TO WEAKEN. BY THURSDAY AND BEYOND, A LARGE MID-/UPPER-LEVEL

TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHWESTWARD AND ERODE THE SUBTROPICAL

RIDGE, ALLOWING ESTELLE TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND MOVE OVER MUCH

COOLER WATER AS RESULT. THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT

ON THIS TRACK SCENARIO THROUGH 72 H, AND THEN IT DIVERGES SOMEWHAT

DUE TO DIFFERENCES IN THE STRENGTH AND VERTICAL DEPTH OF THE

CYCLONE. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE

CONSENSUS MODEL TVCE AND IS LOCATED ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE

GUIDANCE CLOSER TO THE ECMWF MODEL SOLUTION.



ESTELLE'S FAILURE TO INTENSIFY TO A HURRICANE REMAINS SOMETHING OF

AN ENIGMA GIVEN THE OVERALL FAVORABLE OCEAN, MID-LEVEL HUMIDITY, AND

LOW SHEAR CONDITIONS THAT THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING. SOME

SOUTHERLY MID-LEVEL SHEAR ALONG WITH INTRUSIONS OF DRY MID-LEVEL AIR=