WTPZ41 KNHC 200250 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  19

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016

800 PM PDT TUE JUL 19 2016



CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER OF ESTELLE HAS DEEPENED AND BECOME MORE

SYMMETRIC THIS EVENING.  MICROWAVE DATA SHOW SOME IMPROVEMENT IN

INNER-CORE STRUCTURE AS WELL, ALTHOUGH THE LOW- AND MID-LEVEL

CENTERS ARE STILL SOMEWHAT SEPARATED.  SUBJECTIVE DVORAK

CLASSIFICATIONS ARE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN 6 HOURS AGO, SO THE WIND

SPEED IS RAISED TO 60 KT.



LITTLE SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST OVERNIGHT SINCE

THE CYCLONE IS QUICKLY APPROACHING COOLER WATERS.  WITH THE RECENT

UPWARD TRENDS IN ORGANIZATION, HOWEVER, ESTELLE COULD SNEAK UP TO

HURRICANE INTENSITY DURING THAT TIME, AND THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE

OFFICIAL FORECAST.  A GRADUAL WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN BY LATE

WEDNESDAY SINCE ESTELLE WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER WATERS, WITH

REMNANT LOW STATUS LIKELY BY LATE FRIDAY.  THE NEW NHC PREDICTION IS

SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS, ADJUSTED

SLIGHTLY HIGHER FOR THE INITIAL WIND SPEED.



IN CONTRAST TO THE TRICKY INTENSITY FORECASTS FOR ESTELLE, THE

TRACK FORECASTS HAVE BEEN STRAIGHTFORWARD.  A PERSISTENT SUBTROPICAL

RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE STORM WESTWARD TO WEST-

NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  THE WESTERN PORTION OF

THE RIDGE IS FINALLY FORECAST TO ERODE IN ABOUT 72 HOURS, WHICH

WILL LIKELY CAUSE ESTELLE OR ITS REMNANTS TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD BY

DAY 4.  GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO, WITH

A WESTWARD SHIFT TO THE LATEST NHC TRACK FORECAST TO BETTER

REFLECT THE NEWEST MODEL CONSENSUS.





FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS=