WTPZ41 KNHC 200839 RRA

TCDEP1



TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  20

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062016

200 AM PDT WED JUL 20 2016



OTHER THAN A BRIEF WARM SPOT APPEARING WITHIN THE SMALL CDO FEATURE

AROUND 0400Z, THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE OF ESTELLE HAS

CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. RECENT MICROWAVE

SATELLITE DATA, ESPECIALLY A 0531Z AMSU PASS, CONTINUE TO INDICATE

THAT THE CYCLONE HAS BEEN UNABLE TO COMPLETELY CLOSE OFF A MID-LEVEL

EYE FEATURE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 60 KT BASED ON AN AVERAGE

OF SUBJECTIVE AND OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES, AND THE LACK OF A

PERSISTENT, WELL-DEVELOPED EYE FEATURE IN MICROWAVE DATA.



ESTELLE HAS MADE A JOG TO THE WEST, AND THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW

270/10 KT. ESTELLE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A WESTWARD TRACK FOR

THE NEXT 12 H OR SO, FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY

THIS AFTERNOON, A MOTION THAT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH 48 H.

BY 72 H AND BEYOND, ESTELLE IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND

MOVE INTO A TROUGH-INDUCED BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AROUND

130-135W LONGITUDE. THE NEW NHC GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON

THIS SCENARIO, AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LIES CLOSE TO THE

PREVIOUS ADVISORY TRACK AND THE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCN.



IT ISN'T OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ESTELLE COULD STILL BRIEFLY REACH

HURRICANE STRENGTH THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, ANY STRENGTHENING THAT

MIGHT OCCUR WILL BE SHORT-LIVED NOW THAT THE CYCLONE IS MOVING OVER

SUB-26C SEA-SURFACE TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR

IS FORECAST BY BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS TO REMAIN QUITE LOW,

SHARPLY DECREASING SSTS AND MUCH DRIER MID-LEVEL AIR SHOULD CAUSE=