WTIO30 FMEE 171826



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 4/1/20162017

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  1  (ABELA)



2.A POSITION 2016/07/17 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 12.6 S / 62.8 E

(TWELVE    DECIMAL SIX   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY TWO    DECIMAL EIGHT

DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 16 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.0/2.5/W 0.5/6 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1002 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 140 SE: 560 SW: 260 NW: 90

34 KT NE: 90 SE: 190 SW: 140 NW: 60







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 600 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/07/18 06 UTC: 13.6 S / 60.3 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2016/07/18 18 UTC: 14.7 S / 57.8 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL

DEPRESSION

36H: 2016/07/19 06 UTC: 15.8 S / 55.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL

DEPRESSION

48H: 2016/07/19 18 UTC: 16.7 S / 53.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW

60H: 2016/07/20 06 UTC: 17.9 S / 51.4 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW

72H: 2016/07/20 18 UTC: 18.9 S / 50.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT LOW



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :







2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=2.0- CI=2.5



OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, CLOUD TOPS REMAINED RELATIVELY WARM BUT CLOSE

TO ABELA'S CENTER. CIMSS DATA AND IR/WV SATELLITE IMAGES BOTH CONFIRM

THAT WINDSHEAR IS NOW WEAK (LESS THAN 10KT) AND UPPER DIVERGENCE

STILL VERY STRONG. WITHIN THESE CONDUCIVE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS,

CONVECTION IS STRUGGLING TO ORGANISE. THUS, THE LACK OF OCEANIC HEAT

CONTENT IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM.



ABELA KEEPS ON HEADING WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD. THE AVAILABLE MODEL

GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND FORECAST A TRACK FOLLOWING THIS

DIRECTION UNTIL TUESDAY, STEERED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH GEOPOTENTIALS IN

THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THEN, UNCERTAINTY IS INCREASING WITH

GFS FORECASTING A TRACK TOWARDS THE WEST WHILE ECMWF NWP MODEL MAKE

THE SYSTEM DIVE SOUTHWARDS BETWEEN MADAGASCAR AND THE REUNION ISLAND.

THE CHOSEN TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF FORECAST, SUPPORTED

BY THE ENSEMBLE PREDICTION AND THE MAJORITY OF THE OTHER AVAILABLE

NWP MODELS.



ALONG THIS TRACK, THE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE UNTIL

TUESDAY, WITH STILL A STRONG DIVERGENCE UNTIL TOMORROW EVENING.

HOWEVER THE LACK OF OCEANIC ENERGY ALREADY LIMITS THE CONVECTION

INTENSITY, WHICH PREVENTS A SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING. FROM TUESDAY, IN A

SENSIBLY DRIER ENVIRONMENT AND AN INCREASING NORTH-WESTERLY WINDSHEAR

AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH, ABELA SHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. SOME

PERIPHERAL PRECIPITATIONS BANDS COULD REACH THE GREAT MASCAREIGNES

ISLANDS FROM TOMORROW EVENING.=