WTIO30 FMEE 180028



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 5/1/20162017

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  1  (ABELA)



2.A POSITION 2016/07/18 AT 0000 UTC:

WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 13.2 S / 61.4 E

(THIRTEEN    DECIMAL TWO   DEGREES SOUTH AND SIXTY ONE    DECIMAL

FOUR   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 15 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 2.5/2.5/S 0.0/12 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 35 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :56 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 140 SE: 460 SW: 280 NW: 90

34 KT NE: 90 SE: 140 SW: 140 NW: 60







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 400 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : UNKNOWN



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/07/18 12 UTC: 14.3 S / 58.9 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2016/07/19 00 UTC: 15.5 S / 56.4 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL

DEPRESSION

36H: 2016/07/19 12 UTC: 16.6 S / 54.1 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL

DEPRESSION

48H: 2016/07/20 00 UTC: 17.9 S / 52.2 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW

60H: 2016/07/20 12 UTC: 19.7 S / 51.1 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW

72H: 2016/07/21 00 UTC: 22.2 S / 50.3 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT LOW



2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :







2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=2.5- CI=2.5+



SINCE 18Z, CONVECTIVE TOPS REMAINED RELATIVELY LOW BUT FORMED A WELL

ORGANISED CURVED BAND WRAPPING .5 AROUND THE CIRCULATION CENTER. SSMI

2221Z MW IMAGE SHOWS THIS NARROW CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE WELL WRAPPED

AROUND ABELA'S CENTER. OVER THE LAST 3 HOURS, THIS BAND BEGAN TO FALL

APART. THE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS CONDUCIVE WITH A NEW

CIRRUS CLOUDS ARC SUGGESTING A GOOD OUTFLOW ON THE NORTHERN SIDE.



ABELA KEEPS ON HEADING WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD. THE AVAILABLE MODEL

GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND FORECAST A TRACK FOLLOWING THIS

DIRECTION UNTIL TOMORROW EVENING, STEERED BY AN AREA OF HIGH

GEOPOTENTIALS IN THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. THEN, UNCERTAINTY IS

INCREASING A BIT AS ABELA SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHWARD. ALL THE

AVAILABLE NWP MODELS NOW FORECAST THIS TURN, WITH STILL A FEW

DIFFERENCES IN TIMING.



ALONG THIS TRACK, THE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE TODAY

WITH STILL A GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE AND BECOME NEUTRAL TUESDAY.

HOWEVER THE LACK OF OCEANIC ENERGY ALREADY LIMITS THE CONVECTION

INTENSITY, WHICH PREVENTS A SIGNIFICANT DEEPENING. FROM TUESDAY, IN A

SENSIBLY DRIER ENVIRONMENT AND AN INCREASING NORTH-WESTERLY WINDSHEAR

AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH, ABELA SHOULD WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY. SOME

PRECIPITATIONS BANDS IN ABELA'S PERIPHERY COULD REACH THE GREAT

MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS FROM TONIGHT.=