WTIO30 FMEE 181857



RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)



0.A WARNING NUMBER: 8/1/20162017

1.A MODERATE TROPICAL STORM  1  (ABELA)



2.A POSITION 2016/07/18 AT 1800 UTC:

WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.9 S / 57.7 E

(FOURTEEN    DECIMAL NINE   DEGREES SOUTH AND FIFTY SEVEN    DECIMAL

SEVEN   DEGREES EAST)

MOVEMENT : WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT



3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 3.5/3.5/D 1.0/24 H



4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 998 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 45 KT

RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW) :37 KM



6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):

28 KT NE: 90 SE: 370 SW: 190 NW: 90

34 KT NE: 60 SE: 190 SW: 110 NW: 60







7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1010 HPA / 300 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION : DEEP



1.B FORECASTS:

12H: 2016/07/19 06 UTC: 16.1 S / 55.2 E, MAX WIND=040 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

24H: 2016/07/19 18 UTC: 17.2 S / 53.0 E, MAX WIND=035 KT, MODERATE

TROPICAL STORM

36H: 2016/07/20 06 UTC: 18.4 S / 51.2 E, MAX WIND=030 KT, TROPICAL

DEPRESSION

48H: 2016/07/20 18 UTC: 20.1 S / 50.0 E, MAX WIND=025 KT, LOW

60H: 2016/07/21 06 UTC: 22.3 S / 49.2 E, MAX WIND=020 KT, REMNANT LOW





2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :







2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:

T=CI=3.5.



OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS,DEEP CONVECTION REMAINED STRONG NEAR THE

CENTER AND STAYED IN A RADIUS OF 150KM FROM IT. THESE IMAGES SEEM TO

CONFIRM THAT ABELA BECAME A MIDGET WITH A SMALL SIZE CIRCULATION WITH

STRONG VORTICITY. INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SO UNCHANGED.WATER VAPOR

IMAGES STILL SHOW A EXCELLENT UPPER DIVERGENCE MAINLY IN THE

NORTH-WESTERN AND SOUTH-EASTERN QUADRANT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS WEAK

(10KT ACCORDING TO CIMSS AT 12Z) AND BALANCED BY THE QUICK SPEED OF

THE SYSTEM. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE CENTER IS QUITE UNCERTAIN

BECAUSE OF THE CLOUD PATTERN AND THE LACK OF INNER DATA.





ABELA KEEPS ON HEADING WEST-SOUTH-WESTWARD. THE AVAILABLE MODEL

GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND FORECAST A TRACK FOLLOWING THIS

DIRECTION UNTIL TOMORROW EVENING, STEERED BY AN AREA OF HIGH

GEOPOTENTIALS IN THE SOUTH-EAST OF THE SYSTEM. IN THE LATE MORNING

TOMMOROW, THE STORM IS FORECASTED TO PASS LESS THAN 50KM SOUTH FROM

TROMELIN ISLAND.THEN, UNCERTAINTY IS INCREASING A BIT AS ABELA SHOULD

BEGIN TO TURN SOUTHWARD. STILL SOME DIFFERENCES IN TIMING BETWEEN

DETERMINISTIC MODELS, EXISTS. THE ECFWM ENSEMBLE FORECAST CONTINUE TO

GIVE A WILDE DISPERSION FOR THIS PERIOD. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS BASED

ON A MEDIAN SCENARIO OF MAJOR DETERMINISTIOC GUIDANCE.



ALONG THIS TRACK, THE UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN CONDUCIVE WITH

STILL A GOOD UPPER DIVERGENCE FOR THE NEXT HOURS AND BECOME NEUTRAL

TUESDAY. HOWEVER THE LACK OF OCEANIC ENERGY SHOULD LIMIT THE

CONVECTION INTENSITY AND SO THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AT SHORT

OR MIDDLE RANGE. FROM TUESDAY, ABELA SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN IN A

SENSIBLY DRIER ENVIRONMENT AND FROM WEDNESDAY MORE RAPIDLY WITH AN

INCREASING NORTH-WESTERLY WINDSHEAR AHEAD OF AN UPPER TROUGH.



SOME PRECIPITATIONS BANDS IN ABELA'S PERIPHERY COULD REACH THE GREAT

MASCAREIGNES ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT HOURS.=