WTXS51 PGTW 190800 WARNING ATCG MIL 01S SIO 160719065144 2016071906 01S ABELA 007 01 275 17 SATL 015 T000 146S 0553E 035 T012 152S 0529E 035 R034 075 NE QD 110 SE QD 095 SW QD 075 NW QD T024 161S 0510E 030 AMP 012HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER 024HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ABELA) WARNING NR 007 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ABELA) WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z --- NEAR 14.6S 55.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 14.6S 55.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 15.2S 52.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 16.1S 51.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 190900Z POSITION NEAR 14.7S 54.7E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01S (ABELA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BECOME EXPOSED AS THE WEAKENING CENTRAL CONVECTION IS DISPLACED SOUTHEASTWARD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE CYCLONE HAS DRIFTED INTO AN AREA OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), OFFSET SLIGHTLY BY STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE ROBUST OUTFLOW IS EXPECTED TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTION FOR 12 MORE HOURS BEFORE INCREASING VWS DISSIPATES THE SYSTEM BY TAU 24. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z.// 0116070818 29S 891E 15 0116070900 29S 880E 15 0116070906 29S 873E 15 0116070912 32S 863E 15 0116070918 39S 852E 15 0116071000 41S 844E 15 0116071006 42S 835E 15 0116071012 44S 822E 15 0116071018 46S 808E 15 0116071100 46S 796E 20 0116071106 47S 790E 20 0116071112 49S 785E 20 0116071118 52S 780E 20 0116071200 56S 774E 20 0116071206 60S 769E 20 0116071212 65S 764E 20 0116071218 72S 757E 20 0116071300 75S 750E 20 0116071306 78S 741E 25 0116071312 81S 730E 25 0116071318 82S 720E 25 0116071400 84S 713E 25 0116071406 85S 707E 25 0116071412 86S 701E 25 0116071418 88S 696E 25 0116071500 90S 690E 25 0116071506 90S 684E 25 0116071512 85S 690E 25 0116071518 86S 694E 30 0116071600 87S 697E 30 0116071606 90S 698E 35 0116071609 94S 694E 35 0116071612 96S 689E 35 0116071618 100S 679E 40 0116071700 107S 669E 40 0116071706 113S 659E 40 0116071712 119S 644E 45 0116071718 125S 630E 45 0116071800 130S 618E 45 0116071806 134S 604E 50 0116071812 142S 593E 55 0116071812 142S 593E 55 0116071818 148S 582E 50 0116071900 148S 570E 45 0116071906 146S 553E 35