WTPZ42 KNHC 230832 RRA

TCDEP2



TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   7

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072016

300 AM MDT SAT JUL 23 2016



THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS.

MICROWAVE DATA CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS

ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DUE TO SHEAR. AN

AVERAGE OF THE LATEST SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES INDICATES THAT

THE WINDS REMAIN AT 55 KT AT THIS TIME. THE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES TO

BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING, AND ONLY A SMALL DECREASE IN THE

SHEAR SHOULD RESULT IN FRANK BECOMING A HURRICANE. IN FACT, NHC

FORECASTS THIS TO OCCUR WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. INTENSITY GUIDANCE

IS NOT AGGRESSIVE, AND MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT FRANK WILL

REACH ITS PEAK INTENSITY OF AROUND 70 KT IN ABOUT 36 HOURS WITH

WEAKENING AFTER THAT TIME.  THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS THAT GUIDANCE

TREND.



FRANK IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 7 KT.

THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW AROUND A STRONG SUBTROPICAL

RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN UNITED STATES WESTWARD ACROSS

THE PACIFIC. THIS STEERING PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST, AND WILL

FORCE FRANK TO MOVE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO WEST TRACK DURING

THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. SINCE THE TRACK MODELS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED

DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE THAT THE

CYCLONE WILL CONTINUE ON THE SAME GENERAL TRACK. FRANK WILL BE

PASSING WELL SOUTH OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT

SEVERAL HOURS AND BE NEAR SOCORRO ISLAND LATER TODAY. THE NHC

FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.



SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH FRANK ARE PROBABLY ALREADY AFFECTING THE