WTPZ43 KNHC 230235 RRA

TCDEP3



TROPICAL STORM GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER   6

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016

800 PM PDT FRI JUL 22 2016



THIS EVENING'S SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS REVEALED SOME

DETERIORATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN.  GEORGETTE'S EARLIER IMPRESSIVE,

BANDING-EYE FEATURE IS NO LONGER PRESENT, AND RECENT MICROWAVE

IMAGES INDICATE A MORE SHEARED, TILTED STRUCTURE.  APPARENTLY,

MODEST NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR HAS ONCE AGAIN RETURNED AND HAS PARTIALLY

EXPOSED THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION TO THE EAST OF THE STRONGEST

CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT FOR THIS

ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.5 FROM

TAFB AND SAB.  THE LARGE-SCALE GUIDANCE AND THE SHIPS MODEL ALL

SHOW THE SHEAR LINGERING FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO.  SUBSEQUENTLY,

ONLY MODEST STRENGTHENING IS REFLECTED, BUT ALL THE

STATISTICAL-DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE SHOW GEORGETTE STILL BECOMING A

HURRICANE IN 12 HOURS.  THE INTENSITY MODELS INDICATE FURTHER

STRENGTHENING THROUGH MID-PERIOD, THEN AGREE ON A GRADUAL WEAKENING

TREND THROUGH DAY 5.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO

AND IS BASED ON THE COMBINATION OF THE IVCN MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS

AND THE STRONGER HWRF HURRICANE MODEL.



THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 290/11.  A

MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE EASTERN

PACIFIC FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD CONTINUE TO

STEER GEORGETTE IN THIS GENERAL DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

AFTERWARD, A RETROGRADING UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH, EMBEDDED IN THE

DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS, IS EXPECTED TO

TEMPORARILY DISRUPT THE STEERING FLOW JUST ENOUGH TO CAUSE GEORGETTE=