WTPZ43 KNHC 242034

TCDEP3



HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  13

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016

200 PM PDT SUN JUL 24 2016



Georgette has continued to strengthen today, with a cloudy eye now

seen in visible imagery surrounded by a CDO with cloud tops of

around -70C.  The initial intensity is set to 90 kt based on the

latest Dvorak estimates of T5.0 from TAFB and SAB.  Georgette still

has a chance to intensity further in the next 12 hours before SSTs

cool below 26C along the track.  After that time, slow weakening

should begin, followed by a faster rate of decay by 36 hours as

SSTs cool below 25C and the shear increases a bit.  Georgette is

expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in 3-4 days.  The NHC

intensity forecast is above all of the guidance through 24 hours

and near or a little below the LGEM.



The initial motion estimate is 300/09.  The mid-level anticyclone

centered north of Georgette will gradually weaken during the next 72

hours, which will cause the tropical cyclone to turn northwestward

and slow down.  Late in the period, a shallow post-tropical

Georgette should accelerate back toward the west in the low-level

trade wind flow.  The new NHC track is again adjusted a little to

the right of the previous one and is not far from the new TVCN

multi-model consensus.



The wind radii have been adjusted based on a pair of ASCAT passes

around 1800 UTC.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS



INIT  24/2100Z 15.7N 125.4W   90 KT 105 MPH

 12H  25/0600Z 16.4N 126.3W  100 KT 115 MPH

 24H  25/1800Z 17.2N 127.2W   90 KT 105 MPH

 36H  26/0600Z 17.9N 128.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

 48H  26/1800Z 18.7N 128.6W   60 KT  70 MPH

 72H  27/1800Z 20.8N 131.0W   45 KT  50 MPH

 96H  28/1800Z 22.5N 135.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

120H  29/1800Z 23.5N 141.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW



$$

Forecaster Brennan