WTPZ43 KNHC 250834 RRA

TCDEP3



HURRICANE GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER  15

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP082016

200 AM PDT MON JUL 25 2016



GEORGETTE IS MAINTAINING ITS ORGANIZATION. THE CYCLONE EXHIBITS AN

ANNULAR APPEARANCE, WITH A NEARLY SYMMETRIC CDO AND ESSENTIALLY NO

BANDING FEATURES.  A 0245 UTC SSMI/S HINTS AT A POSSIBLE EYEWALL

REPLACEMENT, THOUGH IT'S NOT CLEAR AT WHAT STAGE IT HAS PROGRESSED.

DVORAK SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE A UNANIMOUS T6.0 AT 0600 UTC,

AND ON THIS BASIS, THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS KEPT AT 115 KT.



THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/09.  A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE

TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF GEORGETTE WOULD TEND TO STEER IT WESTWARD

OR WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  HOWEVER, AN UPPER-

LOW AHEAD OF IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPART A MORE NORTHWESTERLY

MOTION, THOUGH AT A MUCH REDUCED FORWARD SPEED.  AFTER 72 HOURS,

GEORGETTE IS FORECAST TO BECOME A MUCH SHALLOWER CYCLONE, AT WHICH

TIME THE TRACK SHOULD BEND TOWARD THE WEST AND ACCELERATE IN THE

LOW-LEVEL FLOW.  THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN

THE PREVIOUS ONE, EXCEPT THAT IT IS SLOWER BEYOND 72 HOURS AND A

LITTLE TO THE SOUTH, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE CONSENSUS TRACK GUIDANCE.



THE INTENSITY FORECAST SEEMS STRAIGHTFORWARD.  GEORGETTE'S MOVEMENT

OVER A COLDER SEA SURFACE AND INTO INCREASINGLY DRIER AND MORE

STABLE AIR MASS SHOULD SOON RESULT IN WEAKENING.  THE CAVEAT IS THAT

GEORGETTE'S ANNULAR STRUCTURE COULD ALLOW IT TO MAINTAIN MORE

STRENGTH THAN FORECAST IN THE VERY SHORT TERM.  BY 48 HOURS,

HOWEVER, THE THERMODYNAMICS IN THE STORM'S ENVIRONMENT SHOULD

BECOME HOSTILE, AND A MORE RAPID WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO COMMENCE.=